Japan’s LDP Counts on PM’s Popularity for Votes; New Party to Rely on Block Votes from Key Organizations

By Kensaku Fujiwara and Koichiro Shigematsu / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

17:25 JST, January 24, 2026

With the election campaign for the House of Representatives effectively underway, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party aims to make the most of the current Cabinet’s high approval rating by making the race a “confidence vote” for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

Meanwhile, the Centrist Reform Alliance – formed by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito – is upping its criticism of Takaichi for “dissolving the lower house without cause.” The new party seeks to pit itself against the ruling coalition by relying on block votes from supporting groups including the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Rengo), which backs the CDPJ, and Soka Gakkai, a lay-Buddhist group that is Komeito’s support body.

Official campaigning will begin on Tuesday, with voting and ballot counting to take place Feb. 8.

According to nationwide polls by The Yomiuri Shimbun, approval of the Takaichi Cabinet has stayed above 70% since she took office in October. Strong support has been particularly notable among young people, who have otherwise tended distance themselves from the LDP.

Within the LDP, expectations are growing that this will “lead to unaffiliated voters and conservative voters being won over [to the party].” It has thus made increasing the exposure of Takaichi a basic tactic in its campaign.

The LDP has reduced the number of words used in the pamphlet for its campaign pledges, instead relying heavily on photos of the prime minister, even creating a page almost entirely dedicated to such photos.

Over the weekend, the party plans to have Takaichi appear on a succession of TV programs. “The decisive factor will be how much we can translate the prime minister’s popularity into votes for our candidates,” a senior LDP member said.

Prospective candidates, too, are seeking to “ride the wave of Takaichi’s popularity,” with requests for her support flooding in. One candidate crafted a flyer featuring an image of themself and Takaichi standing side by side by combining two photographs.

A cabinet minister said, “We will widely distribute the campaign pledge pamphlet that prominently features the prime minister.”

Takaichi, at a press conference on Monday, the day she announced her intention to dissolve the lower house, said, “I want the people to decide whether I should be prime minister.”

She even employed the phrase, an “election to choose the administration,” which has often been used by opposition parties. “If the LDP and [coalition partner] the Japan Innovation Party secure a majority of seats, I will be Prime Minister,” she said. “Otherwise, it will be either Prime Minister (Yoshihiko) Noda or Prime Minister (Tetsuo) Saito” – referring to the coleaders of the CRA.

The JIP is likewise placing its hopes on the “face of the party leader.”

JIP leader Hirofumi Yoshimura is currently aiming for victory in the Osaka gubernatorial election, slated to take place on the same day as the lower house election. He had held the position until resigning to call for the election. A senior party member said they expect to see a synergy between the two elections.

For the LDP, one cause for concern is that its approval ratings have remained low. A nationwide poll by The Yomiuri Shimbun last month found support for the LDP at 30%, even lower than the 38% posted in October 2024, just before the previous lower house election, in which the LDP suffered a crushing defeat.

Regarding violations of the Political Funds Control Law, which involved intraparty factions of the LDP and was one cause of the headwinds it experienced in the previous lower house election, a party member close to the prime minister said, “Criticism has waned somewhat, but harsh opinions remain.”

Another cause of concern is that the LDP can no longer count on votes from the supporters of Komeito, its former coalition partner. This has been estimated to amount to 10,000 to 20,000 votes per single-seat constituency, making the upcoming race a battle based solely on the “real strength” of parties and candidates.

“I really feel Komeito supporters are drifting away from us day after day,” said a former cabinet minister.

A mid-ranking party member confided, “It’s truly unpredictable whether the tailwind from the prime minister or the headwind from losing Komeito votes will be stronger.”