Takaichi to ‘Refrain’ from Taiwan Contingency Hypotheticals After Friday’s Remarks in Diet

The Yomiuri Shimbun

16:23 JST, November 11, 2025

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said in the Diet on Monday that she would “refrain” from making remarks about possible Taiwan Strait contingencies after having made such remarks in the Diet on Friday.

Her Friday remarks in the House of Representatives Budget Committee drew a variety of reactions, some of them positive. A senior Self-Defense Forces officer said, “It can provide momentum for deepening discussions.” However, many in the government voiced concern, saying the issue is not one that needs to be discussed in detail in Diet deliberations.

The issue began attracting attention on Friday, when former Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan mentioned a remark by Takaichi from before she became prime minister. At the time, Takaichi remarked, “It may become a survival-threatening situation” if China were to conduct a maritime blockade against Taiwan.

Okada asked Takaichi at Friday’s Budget Committee meeting, “In what kind of case would that occur?”

Stepping into it, Takaichi said, “If [China] uses warships and acts with armed forces, it can be a survival-threatening situation from any angle.”

If such an incident were to be certified as a survival-threatening situation, the Self-Defense Forces would be allowed to use force under Japan’s right of collective self-defense. It would be extremely serious from diplomatic and security perspectives. Her predecessors as prime minister had refrained from giving detailed views about specific affairs including Taiwan contingencies in their official remarks in the Diet.

In a plenary session of the House of Councillors in February 2024, then Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was asked about the potential relationship between a Taiwan contingency and a survival-threatening situation for Japan.

At the time, Kishida replied: “What kind of incident can constitute such a case will be judged after making comprehensive judgments with information in line with specific and case-by-case situations. Therefore, it is difficult to make a categorical statement.”

During Monday’s committee session, lower house CDPJ member Hiroshi Ogushi asked Takaichi whether she would withdraw her Friday remark about a survival-threatening situation for Japan in connection with a Taiwan contingency.

Takaichi replied, “Because it was a question about affairs of the Taiwan Strait, I dared to mention the case. From now, I will refrain from doing so.”

Speaking with reporters, Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi expressed misgivings about Okada’s stance in the Diet questioning. “If we clarify that ‘this case constitutes this situation,’ our cards will be known by potential enemies. It will make it easier to attack Japan,” Koizumi said.

If Takaichi had continued the debate by responding to opposition party lawmakers’ leading questions, it is possible that the prime minister might have tipped her hand regarding judgments about the nation’s security.

It seems that Takaichi judged it wiser to put an end to the argument in the Diet sessions.

On Monday, a senior government official said: “If we begin talking about specific cases, the debate will be endless. It would be better [for Takaichi] not to mention from now on.”