Election Prep in Limbo as Japanese Parties Await Takaichi Announcement; Diplomatic Schedule a Key Factor in Timing

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi at the Prime Minister’s Office on Friday

Ruling and opposition parties are eager to know when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will announce that she will dissolve the House of Representatives.

Takaichi is considering dissolving the Diet at the start of the ordinary session that is scheduled to convene on Jan. 23. At the same time, she will be busy all this week hosting leaders from South Korea and Italy and will likely seek an appropriate time to announce the dissolution that avoids affecting her diplomatic schedule.

Considering the matter

Takaichi was holed up in the Prime Minister’s Office last weekend. She posted a message on X at around 11 a.m. on Sunday about ongoing protests in Iran but did not appear in public. She declined interview requests regarding the dissolution issue and has been quiet since the media reported that she was considering dissolving the lower house at the start of the ordinary session.

A source close to the prime minister said Takaichi “is following her usual style of thinking on her own, carefully considering the timing and strategy for announcing the dissolution.”

According to a senior Liberal Democratic Party official: “Dissolving the lower house is the prime minister’s prerogative. I assume she’s made up her mind, and nothing can stop it.”

Preparing for an election

Both ruling and opposition parties have prepared for a possible election.

LDP Election Strategy Committee Chairman Keiji Furuya held a meeting Sunday with the party’s election affairs staff at LDP headquarters. A mid-level party official said he instructed his secretary to start looking for an election office.

The Japan Innovation Party would be facing its first general election as a ruling party. Coleader Fumitake Fujita and other executives held an emergency meeting Sunday evening at the party headquarters in Osaka to discuss what the party would do if an election was called.

“We’ve begun moving at various levels, including the election committee, policy research council and public relations,” a participant in the meeting said.

However, there has not been any formal communication yet from Takaichi to the LDP leadership. As a result, even the LDP has not been able to kick off official preparations, but has to wait for the prime minister’s announcement before arranging such things as campaign schedules for its executive members.

Diplomatic protocol

Takaichi’s diplomatic schedule is seen to be directly influencing the timing of her announcement. Takaichi will hold talks with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in her home prefecture of Nara on Tuesday and Wednesday along with visits to temples.

This will be followed by a visit from Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni from Thursday to Saturday.

Some within ruling and opposition parties are urging Takaichi to hurry her announcement, from the standpoint of preparing for the election. However, many others view it as a matter of diplomatic courtesy that “the announcement cannot be made until Ms. Meloni has left for home,” a former foreign minister was quoted as saying.

Opposition parties also said it was discourteous to make the announcement while a foreign leader is still in Japan.

On Tuesday, Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara will inform the Committees on Rules and Administration in both chambers of the Diet of the plan to convene an ordinary Diet session on Jan. 23.

At these meetings, the ruling parties will not propose a schedule for the government’s four speeches — including the prime minister’s first policy speech after taking office — to be made at the session. This indicates that the lower house will be dissolved at the beginning of the session. Even so, Takaichi’s announcement is still needed for confirmation.

Two schedules have been surfaced regarding election day: a Jan. 27 announcement and Feb. 8 voting, or a Feb. 3 announcement and Feb. 15 voting.

In either case, it will be a short campaign period, prompting ruling and opposition parties to accelerate what preparations they can make while awaiting Takaichi’s announcement.