LDP Set to Clash with New Party in Japan’s Next Election

By Masashi Nakata and Yamato Komoda / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

16:21 JST, January 19, 2026

The upcoming House of Representatives election will likely be a showdown between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Centrist Reform Alliance — the new party formed by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito.

For the first time in nearly 30 years, the LDP will campaign without electoral support from Komeito, its erstwhile ally.

“It’s a party created solely for the purpose of an election,” said LDP Secretary General Shunichi Suzuki, referring to the new party during Sunday’s NHK debate program. “A political party is usually formed with a core ideology and basic policies in place first, but here the order is reversed.”

CDPJ Secretary General Jun Azumi, who appeared on the program, countered, “This would be an unjustified dissolution of the lower house that creates a political vacuum and disturbs people’s lives.”

Komeito Secretary General Makoto Nishida echoed this sentiment, saying that dissolving the lower house would cause a delay in measures for dealing with inflation.

It is the first time since the 2017 lower house election that the main opposition party facing the LDP will not be the CDPJ (that year, Kibo no To (Party of Hope) was the largest opposition party). The LDP currently has 196 members in the lower house, while the new alliance could control 172 seats if all CDPJ and Komeito members join, setting up a clash between the two sides.

With the LDP having suffered a crushing defeat in the last election in 2024, many in the party see the upcoming race as a chance to increase their seat count.

Although support for the LDP has not risen in Yomiuri Shimbun opinion polls, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Cabinet has continued to see approval ratings above 70%. An LDP senior official said the party “wants to put the prime minister’s popularity at the forefront.”

Takaichi is the party’s leading conservative and has raised hopes she can bring back the votes of dyed-in-the-wool conservatives.

Mounting concern

This will be the first time since October 1996 that the LDP will campaign in a lower house election without support from Komeito.

Komeito was said to have brought the party roughly 10,000 to 20,000 extra votes in each constituency, often proving decisive in closely contested districts. Amid growing concern about the CDPJ-Komeito alliance, one mid-ranking member of the LDP wondered if “LDP candidates might secure Komeito’s cooperation depending on the local situation.”

The LDP’s coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, has decided to field candidates in about 80 single-seat constituencies. In about 70 of these, it will compete against the LDP. JIP coleader Fumitake Fujita said the party would “take a flexible approach, cooperating with the LDP” in the remaining 10 constituencies.

While Komeito is backed by Soka Gakkai, the JIP lacks a strong organizational presence outside its stronghold of Osaka Prefecture.

JIP leader and Osaka Gov. Hirofumi Yoshimura plans to call gubernatorial and mayoral races to coincide with the lower house election in an attempt to draw attention to the JIP. But it is unclear whether this will provide any advantage for the ruling bloc.

Leveraging existing support

The Centrist Reform Alliance aims to field around 200 candidates. Komeito announced it would not field any candidates in single-seat constituencies, instead opting to support CDPJ candidates.

Building on the CDPJ’s backing from labor unions and Komeito’s support base, they hope the new party will attract independent voters who prefer its centrist platform.

Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito has insisted that the Takaichi Cabinet has pulled Japan to the right. He has stressed the importance of “building consensus” and “people-first policies.”

However, the LDP’s former coalition partner has a long history of opposing the CDPJ, so it remains to be seen if Komeito supporters will all shift their votes to the new party’s candidates. Since Komeito candidates are expected to be prioritized in the proportional representation race, a senior LDP member thinks “Komeito supporters might not fully engage in the election.”