Japan’s New Political Party Formation Sets Off Alarm Bells in LDP Ahead of Anticipated Lower House Election

By Yuta Abe and Yamato Komoda / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

2:00 JST, January 18, 2026

The agreement between Komeito and the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan to form a new party has set off alarm bells within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

Although the LDP-Komeito coalition ended last year, the LDP had quietly been exploring ways to continue collaborating with its former partner. However, it will no longer be able to count on votes raked in by Komeito ahead of an anticipated House of Representatives election, which could have major ramifications for the chances of LDP candidates in some constituencies.

Despite Thursday’s stunning political development, LDP Policy Research Council Chairperson Takayuki Kobayashi avoided directly commenting on the new opposition party.

“We do closely watch the moves of other parties, but the most important thing for us is to figure out what message we want to convey as a political party,” Kobayashi said to reporters in Naha.

Komeito’s decision to create a new party shocked many LDP members. After all, the two parties had a long history of election cooperation, and there had been expectations behind the scenes that some form of cooperation might eventuate for the expected race. Observers believe Komeito can typically deliver 10,000 to 20,000 votes in each single-seat constituency, and losing this chunk of ballots is a cause for alarm within the LDP. “This will have a not insignificant impact in closely contested constituencies,” former Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera told reporters Thursday.

A Yomiuri Shimbun analysis of the results of the previous lower house election in 2024 calculated that if Komeito’s votes had gone to CDPJ candidates instead of LDP candidates, the CDPJ contender would have overtaken their LDP rival in at least 30 constituencies. Almost half of these 30 constituencies were in Tokyo and the surrounding prefectures of Kanagawa, Chiba and Saitama.

The creation of a new party so close to an anticipated election has also sparked some criticism. “A new party of only lower house members brought together right before the lower house election is nothing but an illicit union for election purposes,” a senior LDP official told The Yomiuri Shimbun.

Public support rates for both the CDPJ and Komeito has been consistently low. This reality had one LDP midranking lawmaker playing down the threat posed by the new alliance. “Voters won’t have high expectations for two parties on the wane that have joined forces,” the lawmaker said.

“In an election, votes [for some parties] go up and [for others] go down,” Japan Innovation Party coleader Fumitake Fujita said during a speech in Tokyo on Thursday. “I don’t know whether the CDPJ will garner more votes this time. It’s conducting a grand social experiment.”

DPFP walking its own path

Democratic Party for the People leader Yuichiro Tamaki on Thursday ruled out joining the new party.

“We won’t be involved,” Tamaki said to reporters. “As the election draws closer, I wonder what the public will make of the move by those parties that assume things will work out if they come together.”

The CDPJ and Komeito had urged the DPFP to also participate in the new party, but Tamaki revealed that he had conveyed, through DPFP Secretary General Kazuya Shimba, to the CDPJ side that he intended to turn down that invitation.

The dominant view within the DPFP, which has been performing solidly, was that hastily linking up with other parties would disappoint its supporters. “We’ll go on our own path,” a senior DPFP official said.

The Japanese Communist Party, which previously had advocated electoral cooperation among opposition parties such as the CDPJ through such ways as unifying behind a single candidate, now inevitably will find itself out in the cold.