In Japan, Timing of Possible Lower House Dissolution to Be Political Focal Point in 2026

The Yomiuri Shimbun

15:00 JST, January 6, 2026

Whether Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will decide to dissolve the House of Representatives for a snap election, in an effort to secure a long-term administration, is a political focal point of this year.

Asked about a potential lower house dissolution at a New Year press conference on Monday, Takaichi refrained from a direct response, instead saying: “It’s important to have people actually feel the effectiveness of measures against price increases and other economic measures. We’re working seriously to deal with imminent issues.”

For the present, Takaichi is committed to passing the budget proposal for fiscal 2026 before the current fiscal year ends. It is highly likely that any lower house dissolution would be after the budget proposal’s passage, which is expected at the end of March.

The Takaichi Cabinet has maintained approval ratings exceeding 70% since its launch in October, according to Yomiuri Shimbun surveys.

A senior ruling Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker said, “We would not see a drop in seats [through a snap election].” Therefore, some LDP lawmakers hope that the lower house will be dissolved during the upcoming ordinary Diet session, which is scheduled to end on June 21.

Takaichi appears to be considering dissolution, as she listens to the opinions of those around her. If her Cabinet were to win the confidence of voters in the election, she would be able to bolster her leadership, paving the way for a long-term administration.

The earliest date for a lower house dissolution, which is a subject of speculation within the government and ruling parties, is considered to be immediately after the passage of the budget proposal.

It is believed that a dissolution of the lower house in early April could limit the impact on the public. It would also allow Takaichi to campaign on the issue of the reduction of lower house seats bills in the election.

It is possible she will decide to dissolve the lower house at the end of the ordinary Diet session. Should the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan submit a no-confidence motion against her Cabinet, Takaichi could use it as a pretext for the dissolution.

However, there is a deep-rooted sense of caution within the government and ruling parties that, as the high approval ratings of the Takaichi Cabinet stem from a sense of expectation for achieving measures, she should not change her position from prioritizing measures to prioritizing the political situation.

If Takaichi does not decide to dissolve the lower house during the ordinary Diet session, her next opportunity would be during the extraordinary Diet session in autumn.

In that case, Takaichi will prepare for a snap election while compiling this summer a growth strategy for achieving a “strong economy” she has been advocating and reshuffling her Cabinet in an effort to boost its standing.

The current term for lower house lawmakers is set to expire in October 2028.

“There is no need [for Takaichi] to feel pressured, but she should carefully gauge the timing [of the dissolution],” said one of her aides. Takaichi is likely to do just that, while considering whether it is possible to expand the framework of the ruling coalition.