China Drone Flights Near Japan up 7 Times From Fiscal 2021; Is China Preparing for Possible Taiwan Invasion?

The Yomiuri Shimbun

20:00 JST, April 3, 2025

The Defense Ministry detected 30 Chinese drones flying in airspace near the Nansei Islands in southwestern Japan in fiscal 2024, more than seven times the number detected in fiscal 2021, The Yomiuri Shimbun has learned.

The Air Self-Defense Force has scrambled fighters to monitor these unmanned aircraft, whose areas of activity have been rapidly expanding. They have even reached northeast of Okinawa Island.

Observers believe China is bolstering the operational capabilities of its drones as it prepares for a possible invasion of Taiwan. The Self-Defense Forces are closely watching the movements of these aircraft.

The ministry releases information about unusual movements of foreign aircraft detected in airspace near Japan. The first foreign drone detected near Japanese airspace was of unknown origin in an incident in fiscal 2013.

A single Chinese drone was confirmed in both fiscal 2017 and fiscal 2018, and the ministry announced that four were detected in fiscal 2021, 10 in fiscal 2022, and nine in fiscal 2023. The figure soared to 30 in fiscal 2024, ending March.

The drones’ areas of activity are also growing. Two of the four drones observed in fiscal 2021 flew on routes over the East China Sea, and the remaining two flew between Okinawa Island and Miyako Island to the Pacific Ocean before turning around and returning to the East China Sea.

However, in fiscal 2024, four drones that took this route to the Pacific Ocean then turned north and approached Amami-Oshima Island in Kagoshima Prefecture. In some cases, the aerial vehicles headed southward and flew near Miyako and Yonaguni islands in Okinawa Prefecture on their way toward the Bashi Channel south of Taiwan.

Of the 30 drones from China, or assumed to be from China, that were detected in fiscal 2024, there were 17 that flew between Yonaguni Island and Taiwan on a round trip that went out to the Pacific Ocean and back to the East China Sea.

Six different fixed-wing drone types have been confirmed by the ministry. All these types have reconnaissance capabilities, and three were equipped with attack capabilities such as missiles. Most of these drones were about 10 meters long.

China’s armed forces have been expanding the military operations of aircraft and ships in the skies and waters near Japan. The increased drone flight activity appears to be part of this flexing of military muscle.

“It’s clear that China is trying to intensify military pressure on Taiwan,” a Defense Ministry official said. “China will probably broaden the areas of its drone activity even further.”