Ishiba, Takaichi Struggle to Widen Support among LDP Lawmakers

Jiji Press

11:27 JST, September 16, 2024

Tokyo (Jiji Press)—Liberal Democratic Party leadership candidates Shigeru Ishiba and Sanae Takaichi, popular in public opinion polls by news organizations, are struggling to widen support for them among LDP lawmakers, falling behind Shinjiro Koizumi, another popular candidate, and some others, a Jiji Press survey has revealed.

Ishiba, 67, a former secretary-general of Japan’s ruling party, and economic security minister Takaichi, 63, have respectively secured support from only a few LDP colleagues in addition to the 20 members who nominated each of them, according to the survey, conducted through Sunday.

Meanwhile, former Environment Minister Koizumi, 43, and three others—former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 63, and current LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, 68, have each clinched support from around 10 pct of the 367 LDP lawmakers.

Ishiba and Takaichi, as well as digital transformation minister Taro Kono, 61, are following the four candidates, and Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, 71, and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato, 68, are trailing even behind.

The situation is still uncertain as about 100 LDP lawmakers have not decided whom to support in the Sept. 27 party leadership election, which has nine candidates, the most since the party adopted its current election rules in 1972.

The candidates are competing for a total of 734 votes—367 from the LDP lawmakers and another 367 from rank-and-file party members and supporters. If no candidate wins a majority, the top two candidates will face a run-off.

Kobayashi is backed by many mid-career and younger lawmakers, mainly those from a party faction once led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Hayashi, who has served as the chair of a faction formerly led by current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, is supported by most of the lawmakers from that faction.

Koizumi is enjoying support from lawmakers from many factions, as well as from former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who has influence over party members outside intraparty factions. Motegi is mainly backed by lawmakers from his own faction.

Ishiba’s supporters include lawmakers from a faction led by former LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai, while Takaichi is receiving support from conservative party members, including those from the Abe faction.

Most of Kono’s supporters are from a faction led by LDP Vice President Taro Aso, but nearly half of the faction’s 54 members are backing other leadership candidates.

The Aso faction is the only intraparty faction that has decided to continue to exist. The other factions have disbanded or decided to disband in the wake of a high-profile “slush fund” scandal involving many LDP factions.

Jiji Press has also surveyed one senior official each at the LDP’s local chapters in the country’s 47 prefectures, and found that Ishiba is supported by seven chapter officials, Takaichi by six, Koizumi by five, Kobayashi and Motegi each by two, and Kamikawa and Kato each by one. The remaining 23 chapter officials declined to answer.

Chapter officials especially emphasized Ishiba’s political experience, Takaichi’s policies and Koizumi’s reformist stance.

Over the slush fund scandal, 12 of the 47 chapter officials said that there is no need for the party to take further action after it punished involved members earlier this year, six called for a reinvestigation, and another six urged the party to consider whether to officially endorse involved members in elections.

Asked when the next general election should be held, 29 chapter officials said it should take place soon after the party leadership election.