When Roki Sasaki Hits the MLB Market, Every Team Can Make a Credible Bid

By Chelsea Janes / The Washington Post

11:03 JST, November 22, 2024

Roki Sasaki, the Japanese pitching prodigy heading to Major League Baseball this winter, will sign as a member of next year’s international amateur class, not this year’s, Commissioner Rob Manfred said Wednesday.

The timing will have a significant impact on Sasaki’s MLB future: International signing periods run from Jan. 15 to Dec. 15 annually, so most teams have committed their signing bonus allotments for this year to other international free agents. By waiting, Sasaki, 23, ensures not only that any team bidding for him could offer its entire signing bonus pool, but also that all 30 teams can make credible bids.

As a result, Sasaki could have 30 teams making comparable financial pitches, and the usual big-market suitors will not necessarily be the ones with the most money to offer – because teams that exceed the luxury tax threshold and sign free agents who received qualifying offers have money deducted from the next year’s pool.

According to Baseball America, the teams who will enter 2025 with the maximum $7.55 million in their bonus pools are the Cincinnati Reds, Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, Athletics, Seattle Mariners, and Tampa Bay Rays. The next tier, at $6.9 million, includes a few smaller market teams who could use an inexpensive ace, such as the Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians.

MLB rules allow teams to trade for up to half of their allotted pool, meaning even the teams with the smallest pools – the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants at $5.1 million – could offer more than that $7.55 million. But exactly how much of Sasaki’s decision will be dictated by money, rather than organizational fit for a high-ceiling, still-developing starter, remains to be seen.

So far, nothing about this decision, at least in the present moment, seems to be dictated by money. By pushing the Chiba Lotte Marines to post him long before his 25th birthday, Sasaki ensured he would not be able to sign a massive free agent deal like his former Nippon Professional Baseball colleague Yoshinobu Yamamoto got from the Los Angeles Dodgers last offseason.

Then again, signing with a big-market team now could afford the possibility of a more lucrative extension later. While MLB rules prohibit negotiating extensions with international amateurs before they sign their first deal, they cannot punish a player for planning.

Sasaki’s agent, Wasserman’s Joel Wolfe, represents several Japanese pitchers who found their way to major markets, though all of them were posted when they could sign full-fledged free agent deals. Still, Wolfe’s clientele could offer some insight into where Sasaki’s eyes might turn.

For example, Wolfe represents Yu Darvish, now a staple in San Diego, who has become a first stop for advice for pitchers heading stateside. The Padres’ president of baseball operations, A.J. Preller, has been as aggressive in scouting and courting Japanese players as anyone. Wolfe represented Mets starter Kodai Senga when he came stateside and headed to New York, and Yamamoto, who earned $325 million from the Dodgers.

For all the theoretical parity Sasaki’s posting could offer, the long-standing elephant in this room has been the Dodgers. In fact, Manfred’s answer about when the righty would sign came in response to a question about the money the Dodgers had remaining in their bonus pool and long-standing speculation that the Dodgers already knew they would be Sasaki’s choice.

Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman’s scouting trips in recent years did not exactly tamp down the rumors, which were amplified when the Dodgers saved just more than $2 million of their 2024 international signing bonus pool, according to Baseball America – or roughly the bonus Shohei Ohtani signed for when he came stateside in 2017.

But MLB teams are not allowed to negotiate with international amateurs before they are officially posted. Though teams are known to flaunt the rule to make verbal agreements with Latin American teenagers, the league has kept a much closer eye on its franchises’ dealings with Japanese stars.

Manfred told reporters, “If there’s any reason to believe that there was a violation of one of our rules, you can rest assured that we will thoroughly investigate and try to get to the bottom of it.” And Wolfe dismissed the allegations as “poor sportsmanship” in an interview with the Athletic.

Still, a little added scrutiny from Dodgers’ competitors is not exactly surprising. Last year, Los Angeles seemed to be able to spend at will – and generated tons of added advertising revenue thanks to Ohtani – and went on to win the World Series. So the idea of the rare affordable ace heading to a deep-pocketed free-spender understandably irked more frugal franchises.

And indeed, Sasaki’s presence on the market does offer a unique opportunity to teams searching for a top-end starter but unwilling to pay top-end prices. As things stand, Blake Snell, Corbin Burnes, and Max Fried represent the top available starters. All of them likely will pursue long-term deals, and with several big-market teams in need of starters, they seem likely to get them.

But Sasaki offers something no free agent can: Six years of control at an affordable price, barring a negotiated extension. He also offers uncertainty. Yamamoto, one of Japan’s more accomplished starters in a generation when he jumped to MLB, struggled to find stability in his first season. Sasaki, in contrast, has yet to pitch through a full season in NPB, and he has not earned nearly the accolades or postseason experience of Yamamoto. Planning on him as an immediate ace or Game 1 starter – or even someone who can pitch every five days right away – might be asking more than he realistically can offer.

As a result, teams with starting pitching depth and the ability to lean on more proven starters while Sasaki finds his way might provide a better present and long-term fit. Unfortunately for the rest of baseball, the Dodgers are among the teams that fit that mold. Still, a low-cost 22-year-old with a 100-mile-per-hour fastball and the secondary stuff to match is a fit for everyone. And now it seems that everyone will have the chance to chase him.