Japan’s Political Parties Hastily Prepare for Lower House Battle; LDP Sees High Cabinet Support as Advantage

By Masashi Nakata and Kojiro Tanikawa / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

16:35 JST, January 11, 2026

Now that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has begun considering dissolving the House of Representatives at the start of the ordinary Diet session scheduled to be convened on Jan. 23, the ruling and opposition parties are accelerating their preparations for a snap lower house election.

Anticipating little time, with the election likely happening in early- or mid-February, each party faces tough challenges, such as selecting potential candidates, formulating party campaign pledges and deciding on election cooperation.

“We will promptly select candidates for constituencies where none have been finalized,” Liberal Democratic Party Election Strategy Committee Chairman Keiji Furuya told The Yomiuri Shimbun on Saturday.

Growth strategy minister Minoru Kiuchi, whose political beliefs align closely with the prime minister’s, told reporters in Hamamatsu on the same day, “If there is an election, we have no choice but to fight with all our might and win.”

Many members of the LDP have a positive view of the potential lower house dissolution, though they were surprised by the news.

“It is certain we can increase our seats [in the lower house] compared to now” backed by the Cabinet’s high approval rating of more than 70%, a senior LDP member said.

A Cabinet minister said: “No one anticipated the timing, so the opposition parties aren’t prepared for an election. We have the advantage.”

Meanwhile, an LDP executive said, “The goal is for the LDP to secure a majority on its own.”

The LDP is ahead of other parties in selecting prospective candidates. With the early dissolution in mind, the party is accelerating its efforts nationwide. It needs to come up with potential candidate for about only 20 single-seat constituencies, discounting constituencies where the LDP and Komeito cooperated and Komeito members are now the incumbent.

Those constituencies are mainly in Chiba and Aichi prefectures, where opposition lawmakers have strong results in elections, as well as in Osaka Prefecture, the home turf of the Japan Innovation Party, the LDP’s coalition partner.

Nevertheless, an LDP executive expressed confidence, saying, “We will fill all of those constituencies by Jan. 23.”

Takaichi, who also serves as the president of the ruling LDP, is expected to advocate for expanding the ruling parties’ seats at the Diet to achieve “political stability” and thereby earn the understanding of the public regarding the necessity of dissolving the lower house.

Many observers have pointed out that the Takaichi Cabinet’s high approval rating reflects high expectations for her policies, such as household support based on “responsible and proactive public finances.” In this regard, it will also be crucial for the party to outline pledges that a stable administration aims to achieve.

“The policies the prime minister promised in last year’s LDP presidential election and items in the coalition agreement with the JIP will form the pillars of the party’s campaign platform,” said a senior member of the LDP Policy Research Council.

However, while the Cabinet’s approval rating remains high, support for the LDP is sluggish at around 30%, fueling lingering unease. The current lower house members have more than 2½ years remaining in their terms, and concerns exist about dissolving the lower house before specific results have been achieved in the ordinary session.

“If [the lower house dissolution] is viewed as being solely for the benefit of the party, it will create headwinds,” said one former Cabinet minister.

The JIP has already decided on about 80 candidates, including about 30 incumbents.

“How many more can we field? As many as possible,” JIP Co-representative Fumitake Fujita told reporters in Kanazawa on Saturday.

The reality is that the JIP has achieved no notable policy successes since forming the coalition. The party’s approval rating remains low, and scandals involving JIP local assembly members have been occurring one after another. On the current course, the JIP would end up competing against the LDP in Osaka and other areas. Nevertheless, it has no plans to change course and cooperate with the LDP in the election. Instead, it aims to emphasize its position as a reform party distinct from the LDP before the election.