China May Invade Taiwan Within 2 Years, Former U.S. National Security Adviser Says

By Takashi Imai / Yomiuri Shimbun Correspondent

13:47 JST, May 4, 2023

WASHINGTON — Robert O’Brien, 56, who served as U.S. national security adviser in the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump, told The Yomiuri Shimbun on Monday that China may invade Taiwan within two years. O’Brien urged Japan and the United States to resolutely deal with Beijing in the online interview.

In 2021, the then commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said that the window for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be six years, or until 2027, but O’Brien said, “I believe that window has gotten smaller, I think it’s down to a year or two.”

O’Brien also stressed that if Japan, the United States and their allies do not “provide Taiwan with the weapons it needs to defend itself, and give it the diplomatic muscle that Taiwan needs to prevent the Chinese from believing that they can invade Taiwan without consequence, we could be in a very dangerous situation in Taiwan.”

O’Brien is scheduled to visit Japan to speak at the Yomiuri International Economic Society (YIES) on May 16. He also will attend an international conference in Tokyo.