Japan’s LDP Presidential Race Looks Certain to Go to Runoff; Diet Members Surveyed in Election’s Last Stretch

The Yomiuri Shimbun

17:47 JST, September 25, 2024

The Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election is almost certain to go to a runoff, as former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba, economic security minister Sanae Takaichi and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koziumi remain locked in a neck-and-neck race.

With Friday’s election almost here, The Yomiuri Shimbun surveyed LDP Diet members. The results showed Ishiba, 67, Takaichi, 63, and Koizumi, 43, far shy of a majority, making it almost certain there will be a runoff with the top two vote-getters.

The survey of 368 LDP Diet members, which did not include the speaker of the House of Representatives or the president of the House of Councillors, confirmed the voting intentions as of Tuesday of 361 of the members through interviews and other means.

Koizumi has secured the support of 54 lawmakers, followed by former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, with 42 supporters. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 63, received the backing of 39.

The remaining candidates were LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi, 68, with 35 votes; Takaichi with 31; Ishiba with 28; digital minister Taro Kono, 61, with 25; Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, 71, with 23; and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato, 68, with 21 backers. Seventy lawmakers answered “undecided” or “no answer.”

Taking into account the results of a Yomiuri Shimbun phone survey conducted on Sept. 14 and 15 among 368 party members and members of groups affiliated with the party, Ishiba can expect 126 votes, Takaichi 125 votes and Koizumi 114 votes. The three candidates were well out ahead of the other candidates in their expected vote total.

After the survey was conducted, the vote for rank-and-file members and members of affiliated groups was recalculated due to the LDP gaining a lower house seat from Hokkaido, and Ishiba gained one vote.

There will be a total of 736 votes in the election, half from LDP lawmakers and half from the rank-and-file party members and members of affiliated groups nationwide. A runoff vote will be held if no candidate receives a majority in the first round of voting.

A runoff is strongly expected as none of the frontrunners are likely to get more than 20% of the first-round vote. Even if the 103 votes currently tallied as “undecided” or “no answer” went to one candidate, that person would still be short of a majority.

The three frontrunners are pushing to broaden their support, believing that if they can get around 140 votes, they will make it to the runoff.

As voting for rank-and-file party members and members of affiliated groups will close on Thursday, the three campaigns plan to focus on getting more votes from Diet members in the final stretch of the race.

More than 50 upper house lawmakers will be up for election next year, and some have yet to decide whom they will vote for, as they are assessing which candidate would give the largest boost to their election odds. The candidates are expected to step up their appeals to the lawmakers.