LDP Poised to Secure Majority in Lower House as Opposition Faces Slim Odds

The Yomiuri Shimbun

14:20 JST, February 6, 2026

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party seems set to secure a majority of seats in the House of Representatives in Sunday’s election, according to a survey conducted by The Yomiuri Shimbun from Tuesday to Thursday.

The survey was conducted by phone and online, and the Yomiuri incorporated reporting from its branches nationwide into the results.

The main opposition party, the Centrist Reform Alliance, is projected to lose a significant number of seats from those it held before the dissolution of the 465-seat lower house. The Japan Innovation Party and the Democratic Party for the People are also facing tough battles.

Compared to a survey conducted on Jan. 27 and 28, the LDP has seen its advantage grow and now has the upper hand in nearly half of the 289 single-seat constituencies, suggesting a substantial increase from its pre-election 198 seats. When one includes the proportional representation segment, the LDP may on its own secure a comfortable majority of 261 seats, which would allow it to chair all lower house standing committee chairs and hold a majority on each of these committees. Together with its coalition partner, the JIP, it could even reach the two-thirds majority, or 310 seats, needed to override vetoes by the House of Councillors or propose constitutional amendments in the Diet.

The JIP, which held 34 seats before the dissolution, is leading in many single-seat districts in its stronghold of Osaka. However, it lacks nationwide reach and is struggling to gain ground, including in proportional representation.

The CRA, which held 167 seats, lacks momentum in both single-seat districts and proportional representation. It may fall below 100 seats, potentially halving its preelection tally. The party shows signs of vitality in some districts, thanks to leveraging the organizational strength of the Soka Gakkai, Komeito’s support base, but the impact seems limited.

The DPFP is performing solidly in proportional representation but struggling in single-seat districts. It is not clear whether it can secure the 27 seats it held previously.

Sanseito, which had two seats, is expected to snag significantly more proportional representation seats but lacks the momentum seen earlier in the campaign.

The Japanese Communist Party continues to struggle, and it is an open question whether it will hold on to its eight seats. Reiwa Shinsengumi, also with eight seats, is facing difficult odds of its own and may lose seats.

Genzei Yukoku, which held five seats, may win in some single-seat districts. The Conservative Party of Japan could hold onto its one seat in the proportional representation race. The Social Democratic Party continues to face slim odds of winning anything.

Team Mirai has been gaining ground since the start of the campaign and is projected to win nearly 10 seats in the proportional representation race.

The survey received responses from 182,081 people via an automated telephone system and from 174,512 internet users with Yahoo! Japan IDs, reaching a total of 356,593 respondents.

The situation could change in the final stage of the campaign, given that some respondents did not name a candidate or party they intended to vote for.