Takaichi Heads a Minority Coalition Government: What Does Japanese Political History Say About the Challenges Facing Her?

By Takayuki Tanaka

8:00 JST, November 1, 2025

One of the world’s most successful examples of coalition politics since World War II may be the 1982-98 administration of German Chancellor Helmut Kohl. Kohl’s government was mainly composed of his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and a junior partner, the Free Democratic Party (FDP). During the 16 years that Kohl was chancellor, West Germany and East Germany were reunited in 1990, the EU officially came into being via the Maastricht Treaty in 1993, and Germany committed to being in the first group of countries to adopt the euro currency that was introduced in 1999. The Kohl administration was a driving force in the achievement of European unity.

During this time, the FDP’s leading member, Hans-Dietrich Genscher, served as foreign minister and played a significant role in European diplomacy. When Genscher died in 2016 and Kohl passed away a year later, newspapers around the world paid tribute to each of them as architects of German reunification and European unity. This case showed that a coalition could achieve political stability together with coherent and visionary policies.

In Japan, too, there have been good examples of coalitions. The Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito took back power from the Democratic Party of Japan in 2012 and continued their coalition under four prime ministers over 13 years until the partnership was dissolved in October. In that coalition’s heyday, then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of the LDP boasted of the enhancement of national security and economic revitalization as his administration’s legacies. While Abe was in office, the coalition had a majority of seats in both houses of the Diet, thanks to electoral cooperation between the two parties. An LDP candidate for the House of Representatives election could expect more than 10,000 or 20,000 votes on average from Komeito supporters. This was crucial in contests to win single-seat constituencies.

On the other hand, what did the coalition achieve from Komeito’s point of view? They fulfilled their pledges but seemed to care more about how to win national elections. Cooperating with the LDP enabled Komeito to consistently win a larger number of seats than it might have won on its own in elections for both houses from 2000 onward.

Since 2012, the post of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism minister was always held by a member of Komeito. As is well known, the party was established by a powerful religious group, Soka Gakkai, and pursued peace, welfare and clean politics. You might wonder why Komeito didn’t instead choose the posts of health, labor and welfare minister, foreign minister or justice minister. Komeito might have seen the land minister post as a safer choice because this ministry was rarely involved in controversial issues. Furthermore, construction and transport companies, which are under the jurisdiction of the ministry, were expected to be powerful voting blocs for the ruling party.

The LDP and Komeito had set political stability as their greatest objective. When the two parties combined for the first time in 1999, many Japanese had painful memories of a financial crisis that had been caused by the collapse of several influential banks. To overcome the crisis, the people had accepted the ruling party having a majority in the Diet, and gradually came to support the coalition.

A similar situation occurred in 2012, when the then DPJ administration mishandled the recovery from the previous year’s Great East Japan Earthquake, as well as lingering deflation and an excessive surge in the value of the yen. The DPJ had severe internal conflicts and lost the ability to govern. Many voters looked to the return of a strong and stable government composed of the LDP and Komeito.

“Stable politics” has been an effective campaign slogan against the opposition. The LDP-Komeito alliance lasted 26 years. But both parties lost seats in the House of Representatives election last year and the House of Councillors election this summer, causing the ruling coalition to become a minority government. Why did this happen? We can easily find an abundance of reasons, such as the unpopularity of the then prime minister, the LDP’s mishandling of their political funds scandals and a lack of effective measures against rising prices.

Another answer might be that people felt that the political stability maintained by the LDP and Komeito had turned into an excuse to stick to the status quo and avoid even necessary reforms. Voters seemed to stop placing as much importance on stable politics. If that is the case, then the reason for the two parties’ coalition had diminished, and it is understandable that Komeito bowed out.

Moreover, this situation has shown that the vote-gathering power of the traditional organizations that have supported the LDP (and even Soka Gakkai, Komeito’s power base) has decreased. Labor unions supporting the opposition have been losing their strength even faster. This means national elections have become less predictable, and an enormous number of floating voters may lead to dramatic results in the near future.

After former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his intention to resign, many interparty talks were held to find a new framework for government. This is a very rare situation, not seen in a long time. Each party emphasized its own priority policies as a condition for forming a coalition, but only a few mentioned the need to restore stability. This is out of step with what is needed in today’s political situation.

At last, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, as president of the LDP, started a new coalition with the Japan Innovation Party. Her administration is highly policy-oriented and has pledged to work toward reducing gasoline tax and the number of Diet seats and to consider the idea of establishing a “secondary capital.” These are unprecedented policies, which the LDP-Komeito coalition had put off dealing with.

Takaichi has spoken of her respect for Margaret Thatcher, who served as prime minister of the United Kingdom from 1979 to 1990. Like Thatcher, nicknamed the “Iron Lady,” Takaichi will try to suppress stiff resistance from not only the opposition party but also from other LDP members to fulfill her policies in this upcoming extraordinary Diet session.

Thatcher, unlike Kohl of the same period, led a one-party administration and never seemed to be suited for coalition politics. If we look back on Japanese political history, we can see that visionary prime ministers could win popularity, but if their administrations lacked stability they couldn’t last long.

Political Pulse appears every Saturday.

Takayuki Tanaka

Takayuki Tanaka is the president of The Yomiuri Shimbun, Osaka. His previous posts included managing editor of The Yomiuri Shimbun, Tokyo.