Prime Minister Announces Resignation: LDP Set for Crucial Presidential Election for Party Reconstruction / Expand Ruling Coalition to Seek Political Stability

Editorial

16:18 JST, September 8, 2025

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba finally announced his intention to step down. It could be thought that he avoided a decisive split within the Liberal Democratic Party by making the decision to resign himself.

However, the LDP and its ruling coalition partner Komeito suffered defeats in the House of Representatives and House of Councillors elections and lost their majority in both Diet chambers. As the opposition parties had taken the position of not cooperating with the Ishiba administration, it was evident that government operations would reach a deadlock. It must be said that the prime minister’s decision on whether to stay or leave came too late.

With the prime minister’s announcement of his resignation, the LDP was able to avoid a split, and a leadership election to determine Ishiba’s successor will be held. The new LDP president will have to bear the responsibility of building a constructive cooperative relationship with the opposition parties through efforts including the possible expansion of the coalition.

Regaining conservative support is key

Regarding the reason for deciding to step down, Ishiba said at a press conference, “With U.S. tariff measures having reached a conclusion, I believed now is the appropriate time.”

The LDP was moving forward with procedures to determine whether to hold an early leadership election based on Clause 4 of Article 6 under the party’s constitution in order to hold the prime minister accountable for consecutive election defeats. An early presidential election were to be held if a majority of the total number of LDP lawmakers and party prefectural chapter representatives had demanded it.

Ahead of a decision on such an election, which was scheduled to be made Monday, LDP members close to Ishiba swayed the party by suggesting that the lower house would be dissolved if it was decided to hold an early leadership race. However, this only fueled a backlash and appeared to make an early election certain.

It is absolutely unacceptable for the prime minister to attempt to exercise his supreme power of dissolving the lower house for his own protection.

The LDP’s foundation is weakening.

In the proportional representation segment of the 2022 upper house election, the LDP won about 18.3 million votes. However, the figure fell significantly to 14.6 million votes in last year’s lower house election and further down to 12.8 million votes in this year’s upper house election. This decline is seen as the result of the LDP losing the votes of conservative supporters, who had backed the party for many years, to emerging opposition forces.

The LDP’s reconstruction hinges on whether the party can regain support from such voters. The upcoming presidential election may become a battle for survival of the LDP, which marks the 70th anniversary of its establishment this year.

Prolonged political vacuum

Even though 1½ months have passed since the upper house election, discussions between the ruling and opposition parties on measures to respond to rising prices and other issues have stalled as the prime minister clung to power.

The Ishiba administration accepted the Democratic Party for the People’s demand to raise the “¥1.03 million annual income barrier,” the threshold for the imposition of the income tax, to secure cooperation from the party for passing the supplementary budget for fiscal 2024. To pass the initial budget for fiscal 2025, the LDP fully accepted the Japan Innovation Party’s signature policy of free high school tuition.

The government and ruling parties were caught up in a battle for getting credit among the opposition parties. As a result, government spending swelled and politics fell into disarray.

To avoid such chaos from occurring repeatedly after an extraordinary Diet session to be held this autumn, it is essential to secure a majority of seats in both Diet chambers by expanding the coalition framework.

In the party leadership election, candidates are urged to discuss how the government framework should be expanded. The opposition parties also face the need to present responsible measures.

The next prime minister must shoulder the grave responsibility of advancing various domestic and foreign policies.

Deepen policy discussions

In social security system reform, a review of medical expenses that have continued to increase is an urgent task. Estimated medical expenses for fiscal 2024 amounted to ¥48 trillion, up ¥7 trillion compared to 10 years ago.

As a measure to reduce medical expenses, the government attempted to review the high-cost medical expense system, which is designed to limit the burden on patients when their medical payments become large, during an ordinary Diet session. However, this move faced opposition from patient groups and the opposition parties, so the government postponed reaching a conclusion until this autumn.

Regarding prescription drugs that are currently covered by public health insurance but are similar to over-the-counter medications, such as medicated patches and gastrointestinal medicines, the ruling parties and the JIP have agreed on a measure to exclude such prescription drugs from insurance coverage. However, this measure has also met with opposition, bringing discussions within the government to a standstill.

Without building a government with a solid support base, reforms that will cause an increase in burdens cannot be realized.

During campaigns for the upper house election, the opposition parties pledged to reduce or abolish the consumption tax as a measure against rising prices. However, cutting the consumption tax, which is a crucial financial source for pensions, health care and other social security programs, will inevitably lead to a decline in social security services.

The opposition parties cannot afford to remain in a position where they merely make demands, as they have done before.

Meanwhile, the tariff negotiations with the United States have concluded for now, but an agreement concerning Japan’s ¥80 trillion investment in the United States notes that Washington will select the investment destinations, leaving specific projects and other matters unclear. A consultative committee to be established between Japan and the United States needs to work out the details in the future.

Amid a deteriorating security environment, it is also urgent for Japan to strengthen its defense capabilities. To that end, it is important for the new administration to first decide when to implement the planned income tax hike in order to secure funding.

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Sept. 8, 2025)