Japan’s Lower House May Be Dissolved in Early October; Election Would Seek to Ride Momentum of New Administration

The Yomiuri Shimbun

20:00 JST, September 15, 2024

Early October has emerged as a possible date for the dissolution of the House of Representatives as the Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election nears.

“If I hadn’t said I would call for an early dissolution, there would definitely have been a debate about ‘why don’t we seek a public mandate when there are so many problems within the LDP?’” former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said at a public debate in Tokyo on Saturday.

Koizumi has said he will immediately call for a snap election if he wins the presidential election.

After the Sept. 27 leadership race, the newly elected president will be nominated as prime minister at a subsequent extraordinary Diet session, which is scheduled to be convened on Oct. 1. The new president is expected to swiftly appoint party executives and select members of the Cabinet.

With the term of lower house members expiring in October next year, the new president will also be required to decide when to dissolve the lower house.

If Koizumi wins, Oct. 9 has surfaced within the LDP and Komeito as the earliest possible date for a lower house dissolution. Oct. 15 could mark the start of the official campaign period, with the election set for Oct. 27.

Other possible dates with more time to spare include the campaign kicking off on Oct. 22 for a Nov. 3 election, or an Oct. 29 start for a Nov. 10 election.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida also reportedly believes that the lower house should be dissolved at an early date, while the party still has the momentum of a new administration under new leadership.

“I decided to step down because I thought this was the only way,” Kishida has been quoted as telling people close to him.

In 2008, then Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda resigned, hoping that a subsequent dissolution of the lower house would result in a breakthrough, but his successor Taro Aso decided against calling an early election. As a result, the LDP was defeated in the election held just before the expiration of the term for lower house members, allowing for a change of government.

“Kishida probably wants to avoid falling into the same situation,” a person close to the prime minister said.

However, none of the presidential candidates other than Koizumi have called for an early dissolution. So, the timing could be delayed, depending on the outcome of the race.

Former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba previously mentioned the possibility of an early dissolution. At Saturday’s debate, however, Ishiba said, “I think the real [debate] exchange takes place in budget committee meetings.”

Ishiba was implying that if he becomes prime minister, he would participate in budget committee deliberations and leave a certain amount of time before dissolving the lower house.