Japan Government Estimates Earthquake with Epicenter Directly Beneath Capital Could Result in 18,000 Deaths

The Yomiuri Shimbun

11:22 JST, December 19, 2025

If a magnitude-7 class earthquake were to occur with its epicenter in the southern part of central Tokyo, it would cause powerful shaking over a wide area, and in the worst case scenario, approximately 18,000 people could be killed, according to the damage estimates released by the government on Friday.

This figure is about 20% lower than the previous estimate in 2013, due to improvements in earthquake resistance in buildings.

The economic damage amount was also lowered from the previous estimate of ¥95 trillion to approximately ¥83 trillion.