LDP Candidates Map Out Strategies for Runoff, with Defunct and Extant Factions Likely to Play Major Role

The Yomiuri Shimbun

14:47 JST, September 23, 2025

The candidates in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership race are mapping out their strategies, bearing in mind a potential runoff. With five candidates running, some believe that it will be difficult for any candidate to secure a majority in the first round of voting.

In a runoff, where Diet members votes are given greater weight, there is expected to be intense maneuvering in the now-defunct factions and the still-extant Aso faction.

In the leadership race on Oct. 4., if no candidate secures a majority in the first round, a runoff vote will be held between the top two finishers. This happened in the past six leadership contests, including last year’s race, which started out with nine candidates.

The camp of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, who won the most Diet member votes in last year’s election, has expressed confidence, saying that “we want to decide it in the first round.”

However, the 2012 leadership contest — also five candidates ran, accompanying votes by rank-and-file party members — went to a runoff.

All of the current candidates ran in last year’s election. Within the party, some predict the runoff will consist of former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, who topped the first round last year, and Koizumi, who came in third.

While other candidates are working to expand support and squeeze into a runoff, they are also beginning to plan their strategies should they finish third or lower.

In the camp of Takayuki Kobayashi, a former economic security minister who shares many conservative positions with Takaichi, some lawmakers argue that “Depending on how things develop, we should prepare to unify the conservative vote.”

Lawmakers from defunct factions and the Aso faction are also expected to unite behind candidates in a runoff. Backing the “winning horse” could mean preferential treatment for party and cabinet posts.

In the runoff for the last leadership election, the group that was formerly the Kishida faction, over which former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida retains some influence, instructed members not to vote for Takaichi.

“If Ms. Takaichi makes it to the runoff, the same order will be given again,” said a veteran lawmaker in the defunct faction.

In the 43-member Aso faction, the only officially remaining faction, members are supporting four different candidates, and the group is expected to make a careful assessment in any runoff.