Japan’s Table Rice Demand Forecast for ’25 Crop Jumps Significantly

The Yomiuri Shimbun

12:59 JST, September 12, 2025

The demand for rice used as food, also called table rice, for this year’s harvest is estimated to increase by almost 400,000 tons from the previous year’s forecast, according to the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Ministry’s forecast obtained Thursday.

This is a significant jump from a recent declining trend due to factors including Japan’s population decline.

The demand for the 2025 crop — harvested between July 2025 and June 2026 — is estimated to be between 6.97 million tons and 7.11 million tons.

The ministry is expected to soon convene a meeting of the Council of Food, Agriculture and Rural Area Policies, an advisory body to the agriculture minister, to present a new calculation method among other details.

Previously, the demand for table rice was projected to decrease by about 100,000 tons annually due to declining per capita rice consumption driven by dietary diversification and population decline. Going forward, the ministry will publish its forecast with a range by incorporating such factors as consumption increase from growing numbers of foreign visitors to Japan and higher household purchases.

The forecast is an indicator that influences rice farmers’ planting decisions for the following year. The ministry usually announces its annual forecast at the end of July each year.

The initial forecast for the 2024 crop announced in July 2024 was 6.73 million tons. However, actual demand significantly exceeded this figure at 7.11 million tons, leading the ministry to postpone the announcement of the 2025 crop forecast scheduled in July.