Wheels Start Turning in Race to Replace Ishiba as LDP President, With Top Contenders Likely Same as in 2024

By Ryuichi Sato and Takahito Higuchi / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

13:25 JST, July 24, 2025

With Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba set to step down, members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party have started focusing on who will succeed Ishiba, who also serves as LDP president.

Many observers believe the eight candidates who ran against Ishiba in September’s LDP presidential election are the most qualified contenders for the party’s highest post, and their actions will be closely watched going forward.

Sanae Takaichi, a former economic security minister, was defeated by Ishiba in a runoff in last year’s presidential election. At the Diet on Wednesday, Takaichi huddled with lawmakers with whom she has close ties and exchanged information; she later had a meeting with LDP Supreme Advisor Taro Aso.

Takaichi, 64, has long been considered a promising leader by the LDP’s conservative wing. Since the 2024 presidential election, Takaichi has not held any key positions in the government or the party, and she has kept her distance from Ishiba.

The party’s defeat in the recent House of Councillors election has been ascribed in part to conservative voters turning away from the LDP. “Unless the party picks a leader who can win back conservative voters, it won’t bounce back,” a lawmaker close to Takaichi said.

Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, who placed third in last year’s presidential election, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, who came in fourth, have both supported Ishiba by holding key roles in the Cabinet.

Koizumi deflected when reporters at the agriculture ministry asked him Wednesday if he would run in the presidential election. Given that Ishiba has not officially declared that he will resign, Koizumi replied, “I won’t answer any hypothetical questions.”

Koizumi, who was appointed to his current post in May, has strong name recognition and excellent communication skills. The 44-year-old has been at the forefront of the government’s push to lower rice prices, and his supporters feel choosing him as leader would usher in a generational change and a sense of renewal.

Hayashi, 64, is a policy expert and a known steady hand whose resume includes stints as foreign minister, agriculture minister and education, culture, sports, science and technology minister. At a press conference Wednesday, Hayashi kept his cards close to his chest when asked whether he might run for the party presidency. “I’ll continue to support the prime minister on all national affairs,” Hayashi said.

Other potential candidates who may be keen to throw their hats in the ring include Takayuki Kobayashi, 50, a former minister in charge of economic security, and Toshimitsu Motegi, 69, a former LDP secretary general.

When the former digital minister Taro Kono, 62, was asked on a Fuji Television program on Tuesday whether he would still want to be prime minister if it meant presiding over a minority government in both houses, he said, “Doesn’t every politician want to be prime minister so they can do what they think is best?” A record-high nine candidates ran in the previous LDP presidential election, which was held at the end of then Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s term. Candidates may have less time to prepare for an election than in 2024, so fewer people may step forward to run.

To officially enter the race, presidential hopefuls will first need to secure the signatures of 20 party lawmakers. However, the LDP ranks have been thinned by about 60 lawmakers following the party’s losses in last year’s House of Representatives election and the recent upper house election. This has made gaining the requisite 20 signatures an even more challenging hurdle to clear, and will likely constrain the number of candidates who will be able to run.

The LDP and its coalition partner Komeito hold a minority in both chambers of the Diet. Consequently, even if a new LDP president is chosen, they may fail to secure the majority of votes needed in both Diet chambers for them to become prime minister.

“This presidential election will be different from how things are normally done,” a veteran LDP lawmaker told The Yomiuri Shimbun. “I doubt many people will be willing to stick their neck out by running this time.”