Ishiba Choosing Staff With Eye on Lower House Dissolution; Third-Place Koizumi Eyed to Lead Party’s Election Strategy

By Masashi Nakata and Shinji Abe / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

17:33 JST, September 29, 2024

Newly elected Liberal Democratic Party president Shigeru Ishiba is arranging personnel appointments for his administration, with an eye toward an early dissolution of the House of Representatives.

Ishiba plans to appoint Hiroshi Moriyama, chair of the LDP’s General Council, as secretary general of the party. Former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi will be chair of the LDP Election Strategy Committee, while Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi will continue in that post.

There are concerns about Ishiba’s support within the party, and the new president is aiming for both stability and renewal with the appointments.

Early dissolution likely

“There will be a general election within a year. We’ll make the utmost effort to help Komeito members win all their seats,” Ishiba said to a Komeito convention in Tokyo on Saturday.

Komeito, the LDP’s junior coalition partner, is seeking to hold the next lower house election as far apart as possible from the House of Councillors election next summer. “We understand he is considering an early dissolution,” a Komeito executive said.

Ishiba has touched on that possibility before but he went further on a TV program on Friday, saying, “The earlier, the better.”

Within the LDP, many are bracing for the possibility that an election campaign could begin on Oct. 15, with voting on Oct. 27, which would be the earliest possible schedule.

Other possibilities are also being floated, such as starting a campaign on Oct. 29 and voting on Nov. 10, depending on the state of Diet deliberations. Ishiba might agree, for example, to holding a debate among party leaders or a budget committee during an extraordinary Diet session.

Party No. 2 position

“I want you to be the party’s secretary general if I become president,” Ishiba reportedly said to Moriyama before he was elected. Moriyama maintains good relations with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and Komeito, and has broad personnel connections both within and outside the party. This apparently prompted Ishiba to decide Moriyama would be suited to keeping others in check.

Kishida has retained Toshimitsu Motegi, who was motivated to succeed him as party leader, as party secretary general. This sometimes caused friction among LDP executives.

“In case of Mr. Moriyama, even if he is given the party’s No. 2 position, we can feel assured that he won’t bare his teeth as a rival to Ishiba,” a source close to Ishiba said.

Another reason to appoint Moriyama is that he and Ishiba reportedly agree on the idea of an early dissolution of the lower house.

Ishiba plans to name Koizumi to head the ruling party’s election committee because he believes Koizumi can best be the “face of elections,” due to his strong popularity.

Koizumi finished third among the nine candidates in the LDP presidential election. But many believe he could garner far more support in a public poll, including from non-affiliated voters, as one junior party member put it. Several thousand people gathered when he gave street speeches during the campaign for LDP president.

Ishiba also wants to tout a “new LDP” to the public by having Koizumi, who has been calling fervently for political reform, canvass across the country.

Coordination skills

Ishiba has not held a key government position since he left the post of regional revitalization minister in 2016. Therefore, he may face difficulties in realizing politics through the Prime Minister’s Office.

Ishiba has voiced anxiety about this to his aides, saying, “I don’t know how to operate the Prime Minister’s Office.” By retaining Hayashi as chief cabinet secretary, Ishiba may want him to handle overall coordination with government offices, so as to stabilize the management of the administration.

Hayashi has been chief cabinet secretary since December last year, and has headed the foreign, defense, education and agriculture ministries. He is known as one of the best policy experts within the party. Despite his relatively low popularity, Hayashi was strongly praised for his smooth statements during the presidential campaign debate, and finished fourth overall.

Ishiba won the presidential race in a runoff thanks to support from the former faction led by Kishida, although he came second in the first round. Hayashi’s appointment is believed to be a demonstration of Ishiba’s gratiude to the faction, in which Hayashi held the No. 2 position.