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Yomiuri Shimbun photos Left: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivers a public speech on a street in Kawanishi, Hyogo Prefecture, on Thursday. Right: Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan leader Yoshihiko Noda speaks to the public on a street in Yokohama on Thursday.
By Maki Sanbuichi and Hiroki Takao / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers
6:00 JST, October 26, 2024
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is aware his Liberal Democratic Party is losing ground in the final stage of campaigning for the House of Representatives election.
“This is our most difficult election since we returned to power,” Ishiba said during a speech to the public on a street in Kawanishi, Hyogo Prefecture, on Thursday. “We are contesting this election amid the strongest of headwinds.”
This view is backed up by a Yomiuri Shimbun survey that revealed support for LDP candidates in 31 constituencies has slipped as the campaign enters its closing days. Fierce public anger over money scandals involving LDP politicians has left Ishiba, who also is LDP president, working flat-out to somehow ensure the ruling coalition parties achieve his goal of winning 233 seats, the minimum for a majority in the 465-seat lower house. At the same time, Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan leader Yoshihiko Noda is stepping up his attacks on the ruling parties.
Public criticism of the scandal in which several LDP factions failed to record funds in political fund reports had been strong when revelations of this wrongdoing emerged, but that outrage seems to have intensified as the election campaign has progressed. The LDP’s provision of ¥20 million, funded from government subsidies granted to political parties, to local branches headed by candidates who were not officially endorsed by the party due to their involvement in the funds scandal also has bewildered some LDP members.
“Regardless of how legal those payments might be, it has created a terrible impression in the public’s eye,” an LDP member who has experience as a cabinet minister said. “It has made a difficult situation even tougher.”
Ishiba lobbed some criticism at the opposition parties during his speech. “This nation must never be left in the hands of irresponsible people,” Ishiba said. However, the prime minister’s comments seemed to have little impact.
Noda brought up the ¥20 million payments while speaking to the public in Yokohama on Thursday. “There’s no way your tax money should be used like that and transferred to people who haven’t been endorsed by a political party,” Noda said to the crowd. “If the LDP and Komeito lose their majority, Japanese politics will change dramatically.”
CDPJ hot on LDP’s heels
The LDP’s struggles in this campaign were highlighted by the fact that 20 constituencies in which the party held the upper hand have now become tight races.
In Hokkaido Constituency No. 7, Takako Suzuki had a lead during the early phase of the campaign, but CDPJ candidate Naoko Shinoda has rapidly eaten into that advantage. In Fukui Constituency No. 1, a conservative stronghold, former Defense Minister Tomomi Inada has been pegged back to a neck-and-neck race with CDPJ rookie Tsubasa Hatano. In Miyazaki Constituency No. 2, Democratic Party for the People candidate Shinji Nagatomo has been gaining momentum quickly and is breathing down the neck of former Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Taku Eto.
LDP candidates in 11 constituencies that had been tight races now find themselves trailing their rivals. In Miyagi Constituency No. 4, former Environment Minister Shintaro Ito had been locked in a close contest with the CDPJ’s Jun Azumi. However, Azumi has pulled ahead during the final days of the campaign. In Hyogo Constituency No. 1, former Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Minister Masahito Moriyama has fallen behind the CDPJ’s Nobuhiko Isaka.
The 44 LDP members who were involved in the political funds scandal and are running as candidates in this election continue to face uphill battles, and several former cabinet ministers are in races poised to go down to the wire. In Tokyo Constituency No. 17, former Reconstruction Minister Katsuei Hirasawa — who is an unendorsed candidate — held a lead in the campaign’s early stages, but now there is only a whisker between him and the DPFP’s Yoriko Madoka.
Former Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Minister Hakubun Shimomura in Tokyo Constituency No. 11 and former Reconstruction Minister Tsuyoshi Takagi in Fukui Constituency No. 2 have fallen behind in their races.
Several ministers targeted
The CDPJ’s strategy in the election campaign’s closing phase is to gain even more seats by blasting the LDP over its “money in politics” scandals and chipping away at the ruling party’s support base.
The CPDJ is sending party heavyweights to campaign in tightly contested constituencies and constituencies in which unendorsed LDP candidates are running. The CDPJ also has trained its sights on four cabinet ministers in tight tussles with CDPJ candidates. The CDPJ hopes that defeating these ministers in their single-seat constituencies — Justice Minister Hideki Makihara in Saitama Constituency No. 5, Minister of State for Disaster Management Manabu Sakai in Kanagawa Constituency No. 5, Reconstruction Minister Tadahiko Ito in Aichi Constituency No. 8, and Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Yasuhiro Ozato in Kagoshima Constituency No. 3 — will jolt the foundations of the Ishiba Cabinet.
