2024 POLLS: Ruling Camp Likely to Win Lower House Majority

Jiji Press

10:57 JST, October 21, 2024

Tokyo (Jiji Press)—Japan’s ruling coalition looks likely to maintain a majority in the 465-seat House of Representatives in the Oct. 27 election for the lower chamber of parliament, a Jiji Press survey has found.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party, however, may not reach a majority of at least 233 seats on its own amid public backlash over its slush fund scandal, with its seats seen decreasing from the 256 held at the time of the Oct. 9 Lower House dissolution.

Ahead of the general election, Jiji Press explored the situations across the country, interviewing political party members and others by using its nationwide network of regional bases. Its projections are also based on past election results and public opinion survey data.

In contrast to the LDP, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is expected to increase its seats from 98.

However, the LDP is in a tight race with opposition and independent candidates in 141 single-seat constituencies. The election results may deviate from the current forecasts depending on the developments leading up to the voting day.

The LDP is generally viewed as strong in the Chugoku and Shikoku western regions and the Kyushu southwestern region, where the party has traditionally had strong footholds.

But it is struggling in the northernmost region of Hokkaido and the Tohoku northeastern region, as well as in urban areas, such as Tokyo and the prefectures of Aichi and Osaka.

The LDP fielded candidates in 266 constituencies across Japan. The party is expected to win seats in 87 of them, while it is leading in 64 closely contested constituencies.

In proportional representation blocs, however, the party may see the number of its seats decrease from the 72 in the previous Lower House election in 2021.

Komeito is seen winning a seat in one of the 11 constituencies with its own candidates. It is also leading in five of the 10 very closely contested constituencies.

As for proportional representation seats, however, the party is likely to perform worse than in the previous election, where it earned 23 seats.

It is uncertain whether Komeito can maintain the strength of 32 at the time of the dissolution.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the LDP’s president, has set a target of winning a Lower House majority together with Komeito.

In the opposition side, the CDP is likely to gain seats in 24 out of the 207 constituencies with its own candidates. It is also leading in more than half of 122 closely contested constituencies. Its proportional representation seats are seen exceeding the 39 it won in the previous election.

Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party) put up its candidates in all of the 19 constituencies in Osaka, its home base where it has strong foundations. It has almost secured seats in seven of them and is slightly ahead of other parties in most of the remaining 12 constituencies.

However, support for the party is not widespread in other prefectures. Its proportional representation seats may not reach the 25 in the previous election.

It is therefore unclear whether the party can reach the 43 seats it held at the time of the dissolution.

The Japanese Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party each had won a constituency seat in Okinawa Prefecture in the previous election. This time, both are contesting very closely with their rivals in the southernmost prefecture.

The Democratic Party for the People is within the reach of three constituency seats. It is likely to see its proportional representation seats to increase from the five in the previous election.

Each of Reiwa Shinsengumi, Sanseito and the political group Conservative Party of Japan may win at least one seat through proportional representation.

In the election, 1,344 candidates compete for 289 constituency seats and 176 proportional representation seats.