U.S. Scrambles to Contain Syrian Chaos

The Washington Post / Karen DeYoung, Michael Birnbaum, Missy Ryan

16:15 JST, December 10, 2024

Of all the foreign upheavals that the Biden administration has had to confront and manage in recent years, Syria was not on anyone’s list of likely crises.

A U.S.-backed Syrian peace process, begun after civil war broke out in 2011, was moribund. Lines dividing the country into spheres of influence among world and regional powers hadn’t changed significantly for years. Arab governments that once worked to dislodge Iranian-backed President Bashar al-Assad had started to enfold him in their embrace.

The sudden offensive launched by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel group, leading to the collapse of Assad’s government and military forces in less than two weeks, has left governments around the world scrambling to figure out what to do about it, none more so than the Biden administration.

Senior U.S. diplomats have rushed to the region, fanning out for discussions in Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Israel. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are also involved in talks about an effort to maintain stability in Syria and attempt to foster some sort of political transition.

The United Nations Security Council, whose rotating presidency is currently held by the United States, held a closed-door meeting Monday afternoon with the U.N. special envoy for Syria and the head of U.N. peacekeeping forces in charge of monitoring a ceasefire between Israel and Syria since the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

Since Assad’s fall, Israeli forces have made limited incursions into the U.N.-monitored buffer zone from the Golan Heights – Syrian territory it occupied during the war and later annexed – and have carried out airstrikes targeting what Israel says are suspected chemical weapons and missile sites in Syria to prevent them from “falling into the wrong hands,” according to Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar.

Roger Carstens, the chief U.S. hostage negotiator, has landed in Beirut to coordinate efforts to find Austin Tice, an American freelance journalist abducted in Syria a dozen years ago. He is one person among tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of Syrians who disappeared under Assad’s brutal regime and whose families are now desperately searching for them as prison doors are flung open.

The U.S. Justice Department on Monday unsealed charges against what it said were two high-ranking Assad officials, charging them in connection with conspiracy to commit war crimes against American citizens and others between 2012 and 2019.

The administration has coordinated safe passage to eastern Syria for tens of thousands of Syrians internally displaced by the conflict in the populated west. Meanwhile, the U.S. military, which maintains a force of roughly 800 troops across various locations in eastern Syria, has coordinated and enabled an allied militia to seize strategic territory held for years by Assad and Iran, and encouraged neighboring Iraq to prevent Iranian and Iranian-backed militia forces based there from crossing the border into Syria, according to U.S. officials.

American military efforts so far have focused on preventing Islamic State forces that roam eastern Syria from taking advantage of the chaos. On Sunday, the United States launched dozens of airstrikes against Islamic State militants.

But there are few other immediately apparent options – or desires – to manage the situation. “Ultimately, this is a process that needs to be led by Syrians, not by the United States, not by any other country in the region,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Monday, echoing nearly identical statements made more than a decade ago when the Obama administration tried to direct Syria toward a peaceful, democratic resolution.

“And so what we can do is make clear that we will support the Syrian people on this path towards a better future,” Miller said. “We’re going to protect our own interests while we do that, we’re going to make sure that ISIS doesn’t reemerge,” he said, using an acronym for the Islamic State. “But it is not for the United States to try to use its influence or leverage to dictate any path forward for them.”

He said that the Biden administration wanted to see “de-escalation going forward,” and discouraged any one group from trying to seize advantage of the tumult by attempting to claim fresh territory.

That includes HTS itself, which was once aligned with al-Qaeda and whose leader has had past ties to Islamic State leaders. Miller said that HTS had recently been saying “the right things” but that its future actions remained an open question. He said that U.S. sanctions against Syria and the potential resumption of diplomatic ties to Damascus were tools Washington could use to try to encourage Syria’s new leaders to promote an inclusive political process.

Another senior administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive and evolving situation, gave no indication that the Biden administration was prepared to reevaluate its hands-off policies in the short run.

“It’s just too early to say” whether HTS promises of pluralism and democracy will be kept and what the group’s broader aims are, this official said. “We’re not going to draw any conclusions yet.”

The senior administration official said Biden officials have had “constructive” conversations with the incoming team of President-elect Donald Trump on Syria. Trump, who as president in 2017 authorized the firing of 59 cruise missiles into a Syrian air base from which U.S. intelligence believed Assad had launched chemical weapons strikes against his own people, wrote in a social media post last week that the United States should stay out of the current conflict. “THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED,” he said.

The Pentagon is part of a collective effort among intelligence agencies evaluating the various militant groups in Syria to determine possible partners aligned with U.S. and allied security interests, a U.S. defense official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information.

Another U.S. official said they are sorting out how much equipment and weapons Russia, which long supported Assad and has several military bases in Syria, was able to take with it when its own forces withdrew from the HTS advance. Anything left behind could one day be turned on U.S. or allied troops, depending on whose hands it fell into, this person cautioned.

Sabrina Singh, a Pentagon spokeswoman, told reporters Monday that the United States does not speak to HTS directly but has “counterparts in other groups that have ways of delivering messages to HTS and other rebel groups.”

Regional partners are also intertwined in the swirl of opposition forces in Syria – most of them formed during the civil war. Jordan has ties to rebels in southern Syria, and Turkey and the United States have long supported groups in the north along the Turkish border that oppose each other as well as Assad.

The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – Syrian Kurds whom Ankara deems terrorists – have been facing off against each other for years. Concurrent with the HTS action, the SNA launched what it called “Operation Dawn of Freedom” attacks against SDF areas along the border.

Turkey, which has also been a supporter of HTS, backed the SNA’s assault against SDF forces in the northern border city of Manbij and the eastern part of Aleppo province in recent days, according to Arabic press accounts. Reuters reported Monday that the United States and Turkey had reached an agreement to ensure the safe withdrawal of the SDF from Manbij to the eastern side of the Euphrates River.

In conversations with Turkey, the Biden administration is trying to avoid a direct confrontation that could distract and undermine the Kurdish-led Syrian militant groups, including the SDF, that are guarding the al-Hol camp and other prisons in northeastern Syria where thousands of Islamic State fighters are confined.

But the SDF, while now likely the best-armed and most cohesive force in Syria, could face a test if Turkey, HTS or both target it, Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie, a retired general who commanded U.S. forces in the region from 2019 to 2022, said in a phone interview Monday.

“The first test of any country is to regain your full sovereignty,” McKenzie said, warning that the HTS may not leave the Kurds alone in the semi-autonomous northeastern region they have controlled for several years. “Extremist groups tend to stay extremist,” he said.