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North Korea is taking part in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and proceeding with a large-scale dispatch of troops. This is a serious situation that will not only affect the war situation in Ukraine, but also the security environment in East Asia.
According to South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, North Korea has decided to send around 12,000 troops to Russia, and 1,500 members of North Korea’s special forces have been trained in the Russian Far East for deployment to the front line. It is believed that they will soon head for the Kursk region in western Russia, where some areas have been occupied by Ukrainian troops.
It is thought that the basis of the dispatch of troops from North Korea is the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership signed between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin in June. The treaty clearly states that Russia and North Korea will provide military assistance by all means possible if the other side is faced with an armed invasion.
In any case, it is Russia that is carrying out an act of aggression against Ukraine. As such, it does not make sense to apply the treaty’s provisions for facing aggression. North Korea cannot escape the accusation that it has effectively become a party to the aggression.
The Russian military is engaged in a war of attrition in which the number of casualties exceeds 1,200 per day, and the shortage of troops is becoming more serious. Two years ago, Putin mobilized 300,000 troops, but Russia has not procured additional troops this way due to public opposition.
Russia’s reliance on North Korea for not only weapons and ammunition but also soldiers can be called a sign of its predicament.
There is a fear that the Russian aggression will be prolonged by the replenishment of troops from North Korea. Western countries are providing Ukraine with weapons and funds, but they are not sending troops. It is necessary to keep a close eye on the movements of North Korean troops and their impact on the war.
The deepened military cooperation between Russia and North Korea will inevitably lead to further tension in East Asia.
It is believed that North Korea is asking Russia for supplies of crude oil and food in return for dispatching troops. This will surely not be used to improve the lives of the people, but to strengthen Kim’s dictatorship.
There also is a possibility that Russia will transfer to North Korea military technology for downsizing nuclear warheads and improving the precision of ballistic missiles, as well as tech related to nuclear submarines. If this happens, the security of Japan and South Korea will be threatened, and the situation in the region will quickly become more serious.
The worst-case scenario based on the Russia-North Korea treaty would be that North Korea invades South Korea and Russia also sends troops. North Korea could be trying to prevent the United States from intervening in the event of a contingency in the Korean Peninsula by hinting at the possibility of Russia becoming involved in the war.
Russia’s act of aggression, in which human lives are disposed of like expendable goods, is inexcusable. North Korea, which is offering up the lives of its citizens to Russia in order to maintain its regime, is also grotesque.
