In Japan’s LDP Leadership Election, Koizumi Leads Takaichi, with Hayashi Close Behind, Polls Show

The Yomiuri Shimbun

15:20 JST, September 29, 2025

Agriculture minister Shinjiro Koizumi is currently leading former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi in the upcoming Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, with Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi close behind, according to a pair of Yomiuri Shimbun surveys.

One survey targeted LDP Diet members and the other was a telephone survey targeting LDP supporters.

Voting and ballot-counting will take place on Saturday. Five candidates will compete for a total of 590 votes: each of the 295 LDP lawmakers has one vote, while the ballots of rank-and-file party members and members of LDP-affiliated bodies will be converted into 295 votes.

The surveys indicate that a runoff between the top two candidates is highly likely. Through an analysis of the surveys, Koizumi is projected to win 191 votes, followed by Takaichi with 113 and Hayashi with 100. However, as the destination of nearly 20% of the votes is unknown, which two would make it to a runoff vote is uncertain.

If no candidate secures a majority in the first vote, a runoff will be held between the top two candidates. In the runoff, there will be 342 votes. The 295 Diet member will each have a vote and a vote will be allocated to the candidate with the most ballots from rank-and-file party members and members of LDP-affiliated bodies in each of the 47 prefectures.

The Yomiuri Shimbun has interviewed 265 of the 295 LDP Diet members as of Sunday about which candidate they support. Koizumi received the most support, with 71 naming him, followed by Hayashi with 52, Takaichi with 38. Both former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi and former LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi received support from 29.

Of the remaining 76 LDP Diet members, 46 said they were either undecided or did not want to answer, while 30 did not reply to the interview.

The telephone survey was conducted on Saturday and Sunday by calling landline and mobile phone numbers selected via random digit dialing. Of the 9,195 people who answered, The Yomiuri Shimbun analyzed responses from the 3,143 who stated they support the LDP.

Asked which candidate they most support, 40% picked Koizumi. Takaichi was next with 25%, then Hayashi with 16%, Kobayashi with 5% and Motegi with 4%. The remaining responses did not specify a preferred candidate.

Among the 519 respondents identifying themselves as rank-and-file party members or members of LDP-affiliated bodies, Koizumi received 41% support, followed by Takaichi with 28%, Hayashi with 13%, Kobayashi with 8% and Motegi with 4%.

Based on the responses from LDP supporters, Koizumi is estimated to win 120 votes from rank-and-file party members or members of LDP-affiliated bodies, followed by Takaichi with 75 votes, Hayashi with 48 votes, Kobayashi with 14 votes and Motegi with 11 votes.

When combined with the lawmakers’ votes, Koizumi is projected to win 191 votes, followed by Takaichi with 113 votes, Hayashi with 100 votes, Kobayashi with 43 votes and Motegi with 40 votes.

As Koizumi only secures only 30% of support, according to the surveys, a runoff vote is a highly likely outcome.