PM’s Call to Revise Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Pact Cause Stir in Okinawa; Ruling, Opposition Parties Examine Feasibility of Changes

By Hirotaka Kuriyama and Manami Shimada / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

6:00 JST, October 23, 2024

TOKYO/NAHA — Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party President Shigeru Ishiba’s long-standing call to revise the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement has been causing a stir in Okinawa Prefecture, where conservatives and liberals are competing fiercely with each other in the House of Representatives election.

Local residents have high hopes for a revision of the agreement, which defines the legal treatment of U.S. forces in Japan, though many people know this would be difficult to achieve.

“The prime minister promises to double subsidies for regional revitalization. I will bring the trend of regional revitalization to Okinawa,” LDP candidate Aiko Shimajiri, 59, said Friday in her stump speech in Nago on the northern part of Okinawa Island.

Delivering her speech under the midsummer-like sun at an intersection in the city, Shimajiri focused on the revitalization and promotion of regional areas. She did not touch on issues related to U.S. military bases in the prefecture, including the Japan-U.S. agreement.

The U.S. Marine Corps Futenma Air Station in Ginowan, Okinawa Prefecture, is planned to be relocated to Nago. The relocation issue has long been the focus of discussion in Okinawa, but many now believe the issue has settled down after the Supreme Court’s ruling against the prefecture finalized a lawsuit between the central and prefectural governments over the relocation.

Shimajiri, a former state minister for Okinawa and northern territories affairs, believes that voters in the prefecture are more interested in regional promotion measures. Her campaign officials are cautious about discussing a revision of the agreement because going deeper into the matter could lead to other issues related to U.S. military bases in the prefecture, which would benefit the liberals.

The agreement drew attention after Ishiba brought up the issue in his campaign speech for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election in September in Naha.

“I will start a review of the agreement, and U.S. military bases will be managed jointly with the Self-Defense Forces,” he said.

During the speech, Ishiba mentioned an accident in which a U.S. military helicopter crashed at the campus of Okinawa International University, next to the Futenma air base, in 2004, when Ishiba was the head of the Defense Agency.

He questioned the current bilateral agreement with the United States, saying: “Okinawa police were not even allowed to enter the crash site and the remains of the helicopter were recovered by the U.S. military. Is this a sovereign country?”

Shimajiri, who listened to the speech at the venue, was concerned about Ishiba’s claim. “I welcome his statement, but I wonder if we can revise the agreement in a way Okinawa wants,” Shimajiri thought.

Before the 2009 lower house election, Yukio Hatoyama, 77, then leader of the Democratic Party of Japan — the predecessor to the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan — promised to at least move the air base outside the prefecture. Okinawa has bitter memories of the turmoil these statements caused.

Pushed by residents in Okinawa who were excited about Hatoyama’s pledges, the Okinawa chapter of the LDP changed its stance and supported relocation to outside the prefecture. After a bitter struggle, however, the chapter returned to its original stance to accept relocation to the Henoko district in Nago, which triggered criticism against them.

“Ishiba might make the same mistake Hatoyama did,” an official of the chapter who is familiar with those days said anxiously.

Liberal opposition parties are not sure how to evaluate Ishiba’s statements either. Since they basically agree with the idea of revising the agreement, they are focusing on differences over how it should be changed. However, Ishiba’s assertions are not very clear, which makes it difficult for these parties to deal with the issue.

CDPJ candidate Tomohiro Yara, 62, said in a speech Saturday in Uruma, Okinawa Prefecture: “The revision claimed by the prime minister has nothing to do with our lives. We need to change the current system to one in which administrative officials can enter U.S. military bases freely.”

Okinawa Gov. Denny Tamaki, 65, took the microphone after Yara and said, “We should never make Okinawa a battlefield again.” Tamaki criticized the increased deployment of SDF personnel in Okinawa, but he did not mention revising the agreement.

A member of the Okinawa prefectural assembly who is close to Yara said, “Residents in the prefecture want the agreement to be revised, so it’s difficult to use that to criticize the administration.”

Tamaki reportedly said to his close aides: “I wonder if he’s just getting people’s expectations up. I want to meet the prime minister and ask his true intentions.”

Yara tried to criticize Ishiba over his past comments and actions regarding the relocation of the air base to the Henoko district.

“The Ryukyu Disposition in the Heisei era” — this was how people in Okinawa Prefecture referred to a press conference held by Ishiba, then LDP secretary general, in November 2013, along with Diet members belonging to the prefectural chapter who were disappointed because they were forced to accept the Henoko relocation.

The situation was likened to the actual disposition of the Ryukyu Kingdom, in which the Meiji government dissolved the Ryukyu domain and formed Okinawa Prefecture.

In his first campaign speech he delivered in Nago after the official start of the House of Representatives election campaign, Yara criticized Ishiba saying: “He made LDP Diet members who were opposed to the reclamation of the Henoko coast break their campaign promises. It was like he forced them to bow down to the ground.”

Ishiba asked the Okinawa chapter to let him visit the prefecture to support LDP candidates, and there were attempts to make arrangements, but ultimately his request was not fulfilled. What impact will this deep, complicated relationship between Ishiba and Okinawa Prefecture have on the election? With the election campaign entering the final phase, all the candidates and their teams are paying close attention to that point.