Democrats Face Uphill Battle to Hold Slim Senate Majority

The Washington Post / Liz Goodwin

13:54 JST, November 6, 2024

Democrats are fighting to hold their narrow Senate majority as they face a slew of tough races in purple and red states where Republicans have the political advantage.

Former West Virginia governor Jim Justice is widely expected to win the Senate contest in his red state, which had been held by Sen. Joe Manchin III (I-West Virginia) for 14 years, flipping the 51-49 Democratic Senate to an even 50-50. If all other races stay the same, the chamber would flip to Republican control if Donald Trump wins the presidential race, and stay Democratic if Kamala Harris emerges as the victor.

Control of the Senate will be vital for the next president’s ability to enact his or her agenda, as well as to staff their administration. Many crucial cabinet and judicial appointments require Senate approval for confirmation.

With just hours of voting to go, Republicans appeared in good shape to nab at least one other seat. Democratic Sen. Jon Tester has trailed Republican Tim Sheehy in many public polls, suggesting that the farmer could lose his seat to the former Navy SEAL.

The picture is less clear in Ohio, where Republican car dealer Bernie Moreno and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) have been locked in a close battle for the Senate in a state that voted for Trump by 8 percentage points in 2020. More than half a billion in advertising dollars have been spent in the race, according to an analysis by AdImpact, making it the most expensive of the cycle.

Democrats hold out hope that Rep. Colin Allred could knock out Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in Texas, or that the independent candidate Dan Osborn may defeat GOP Sen. Deb Fischer in Nebraska, denying Republicans that seat. But those red-state races are long shots for Democrats.

Republicans and Democrats poured $2.6 billion of advertising money into Senate races this cycle, according to an analysis by AdImpact. Republican candidates and groups focused on tying Democrats to the border and inflation issues, while Democrats hit their opponents on abortion and raised questions about their character. Democratic candidates vastly outraised their Republican challengers in many key races, but with outside super PAC money factored in, Republicans had the edge in a few states – including Ohio and Pennsylvania.

If Republicans can clinch the majority, the question becomes whether they can pad out their numbers past 51 seats, which would give them more room to maneuver next year. Moderate Republican Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins would have outsize influence in a small GOP majority, but their power would be diluted if Republicans could pick up Senate seats in the swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada.

It is not clear, though, whether Republicans will indeed sweep purple states. In the lead-up to Election Day, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D), a Marine Corps veteran, appeared in good shape against Kari Lake (R), a former newscaster who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2022, in Arizona, even as Trump led Harris in the state. Lake, a close ally of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s, has alienated some of the state’s crucial independents with a lengthy legal battle to try to overturn her earlier loss. Gallego also has slammed Lake for her past support for banning abortion.

David Seaton, 64, split his ballot when he voted on Tuesday morning at a Baptist church in Phoenix, supporting both Trump and Gallego. “I wanted to vote for people who have a tendency to work with others,” Seaton said, calling Lake a “disingenuous sort of grifter.”

In Nevada, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is seeking to stave off a challenge from Republican Sam Brown, a decorated Army veteran who nearly lost his life in 2008 in Afghanistan after he was severely burned when a bomb exploded and left him badly scarred. The two have sparred over abortion rights, which Rosen supports, in the pro-life state that typically votes for Democrats. Trump has shown strength in the polls there, but Brown has not matched his support.

In the Blue Wall states, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Michigan), Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pennsylvania) and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin) have courted voters with promises of working across the aisle with Republicans and slamming their Republican challengers for their stances on abortion rights and ties to China. Their opponents have painted the Democrats as soft on immigration and as voting in lockstep with Democrats. Polls have shown these races tightened considerably in the past two months, with the Republicans and Democrats neck and neck.

In Philadelphia, Republican Ed O’Hara, 78, said he planned to vote for Trump and Republican Senate candidate David McCormick. “He’s a nothing. He wrote on his father’s coat tails,” O’Hara said of Casey, whose father was the governor of the state. “I think he’s a zero.”

The target-rich Senate map for Republicans has led to optimism from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) and National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair Steve Daines (R-Montana), who have hoped to bulk up the Senate majority ahead of a harder election cycle in 2026.

“I think that this is the best map I’ve seen in a long time,” McConnell told The Washington Post earlier this year.

Senate Republicans will pick a new leader after this election, after McConnell announced he’s retiring from the role.