Survey a Strong Indicator of LDP Presidential Winner; Votes of Rank-and-File, Affiliated Groups Likely Vital

By Michitaka Kaiya and Masashi Nakata / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

6:00 JST, August 27, 2024

The outcome of the Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election next month is likely to depend greatly on the votes of rank-and-file party members and members of affiliated groups, votes that tend to reflect public opinion.

In the latest Yomiuri Shimbun survey, former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba, 67, and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 43, were the two top picks as the most suitable candidate to be the next LDP president. The survey results are likely to affect the strategies of all the candidates and possible candidates.

Ishiba wary of Koizumi

Ishiba was the most suitable choice for 22% — the largest proportion of respondents — in the most recent poll.

“I’ve been touting the need for reform in the various fields that I’ve worked on, and I believe I’ve received a certain amount of support for that,” Ishiba was quoted as saying to people close to him on Sunday, in response to the poll results.

“There’s still a long way to go. Mr. Koizumi hasn’t announced his intention [to run in the race] either,” Ishiba added, expressing caution about Koizumi’s growing momentum. The former environment minister came in second with 20%, up 5 percentage points from the previous survey.

Koizumi plans to announce his candidacy on Friday.

“The fact that he garnered this high figure before he announced his candidacy indicates there are great expectations of him,” said an LDP member who served in a Cabinet post and is working to support Koizumi.

Koizumi’s only Cabinet post so far has been environment minister, leaving concern that his high profile is not matched by his experience.

However, people close to Koizumi stressed that in order to change itself, the LDP needs to break away from the conventional career path of becoming president and prime minister after serving as a key Cabinet member or in one of the four main party leadership positions.

Struggling to be known

Economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, 63, demonstrated her presence by coming in third with 10%. She is believed to have become more widely known nationwide as a result of her candidacy in the previous presidential election in 2021.

Among those with extensive experience in key positions, digital minister Taro Kono, 61, came in fourth. However, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 63; LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi, 68; and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato, 68, have struggled to become better known among the public.

Former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, who some hope will bring a sense of renewal to the party, has also struggled to boost his visibility.

Counting the three people who have already announced their candidacies, and the lawmakers believed to have secured nominations from 20 LDP lawmakers, a total of seven people will likely run for office. There is also the possibility others will join in.

Nominators are expected to vote for the candidates they endorsed in the first round of voting. If there are a large number of candidates, it will be difficult for anyone to secure a significant lead only with the votes of Diet members.

Therefore, the candidate who garners the most votes from rank-and-file party members and members of affiliated groups will likely have the advantage, as their votes are converted to equal the 367 votes of Diet members.

“We have to strengthen our efforts to appeal to rank-and-file party members and members of affiliated groups,” said an experienced LDP member who supports Hayashi.

Lower house election in mind

Past presidential elections have shown that opinion polls about the most suitable candidate for the next president and prime minister serve as a leading indicator of how rank-and-file party members and members of affiliated groups will vote.

In 2012, the largest group of respondents — 28% — chose Ishiba in a survey immediately before the presidential race. Ishiba ultimately garnered 165 votes from rank-and-file party members and members of affiliated groups, the most out of 300. Likewise in 2021, Kono was the top choice in the survey immediately prior with 23% of respondents selecting him. He subsequently won 169 votes in the race, or about 44% of the total.

However, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ultimately won the 2012 race and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida won in 2021, both in run-off elections in which Diet members’ votes weighed more than in the first round.

Many observers believe a runoff election will also take place in the upcoming race. However, some believe that with the House of Representatives election in mind, lawmakers would be reluctant to vote for a candidate who is a different choice from that of most rank-and-file party members.

Lower house members’ term will expire in October next year, and many more within the LDP are now calling for dissolving the lower house soon so that a general election can be held while the party still has the momentum of a new president.

The earliest possible date has surfaced as Oct. 15 for the start of the official campaign period, with the election set for Oct. 27.

Other possible dates include the campaign kicking off on Oct. 22 for a Nov. 3 election, or on Oct. 29 for a Nov. 10 election.