Govt Adopts Plan to Reduce Nankai Quake Deaths by 80%

Jiji Press

16:20 JST, July 2, 2025

TOKYO (Jiji Press) — The government decided Tuesday to seek to reduce the estimated number of deaths from a possible megaquake in the Nankai Trough off the country’s Pacific coast by 80% over the next decade.

The target is included in a revised basic plan to promote disaster prevention measures, which was adopted at the day’s Central Disaster Prevention Council meeting. This marks the first full revision of the original plan drawn up in 2014.

According to the latest estimate disclosed in March, the death toll is expected to reach up to about 298,000.

At the meeting, the government shared a proposal to designate 16 additional municipalities as “promotion areas” where intensive measures will be implemented. This will bring the total to 723 municipalities in 30 prefectures, mainly on the Pacific coast from Ibaraki to Okinawa prefectures.

The addition, in response to new topographical data and other information based on new damage estimates, was later approved by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

Such promotion areas are designated by the prime minister among municipalities that are expected to experience an earthquake of lower 6 or higher on the Japanese seismic intensity scale or tsunami of at least 3 meters, based mainly on requests from prefectural governments.

The revised basic plan also aims to halve the estimated number of buildings destroyed or burned in the wake of the Nankai Trough earthquake from about 2.35 million.

Before the revision, the basic plan also sought to slash the death toll by 80% and the number of destroyed houses by 50%.

Under the latest plan, the government will promote efforts to reinforce houses with insufficient earthquake resistance in the promotion areas by fiscal 2035.

In addition, it will support efforts by all municipalities in the promotion areas with tsunami disaster warning districts to prepare and publish hazard maps and conduct evacuation drills by fiscal 2030.

To prevent disaster-related deaths, the government will promote the stockpiling of disaster supplies and equipment, such as toilets and beds, and improve the shelter environment.