Washington and Arab States Scramble to Avert an All-out Middle East War

The Washington Post / Missy Ryan, John Hudson, Yasmeen Abutaleb, Karen DeYoung

15:52 JST, August 7, 2024

JERUSALEM – The Biden administration is racing to avert an explosion of violence across the Middle East, a high-stakes moment that threatens to derail a long-awaited cease-fire deal in the Gaza Strip and underscores the limits of American influence over Israel, its closest ally in the region.

President Biden and Vice President Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee for president, huddled with their top advisers in the White House Situation Room on Monday to discuss an anticipated Iranian assault against Israel and an attack by an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia that injured U.S. troops, a strike to which Washington vowed to respond “in a manner and place of our choosing.”

The United States has scrambled to position additional military assets, including a squadron of F-22 jets and naval destroyers, closer to Israel to help defend against what officials believe will be an imminent attack by Tehran in retaliation for last week’s killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is leading a diplomatic sprint to apply indirect pressure on Iran, asking top officials in Cairo, Baghdad and other Arab capitals to urge that any response from Tehran and, potentially, its militant allies be restrained. That reprisal, Blinken has privately cautioned global diplomats, could come as early as Tuesday.

“No one should escalate this conflict,” Blinken told reporters Tuesday. “We’ve been engaged in intense diplomacy with allies and partners, communicating that message directly to Iran. We communicated that message directly to Israel.”

But it is unclear how much America’s Arab allies can do to contain the expected counterstrike and, moving forward, whether Washington can dissuade the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from further fueling the flames.

The region remained on edge Tuesday as airlines canceled flights into Tel Aviv and Beirut, and Western governments advised their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately. Like its patron Iran, Lebanon’s powerful Hezbollah militant group has vowed retribution against Israel – in its case, for a July 30 airstrike that killed a top deputy to the group’s leader, Hasan Nasrallah, south of Beirut.

“We may respond all at once, or maybe each of us in the axis may respond at our own time, in our own way, with our own targets,” Nasrallah warned in a speech Tuesday.

Israel was on high alert Tuesday as leaders signaled readiness for a possible blow. The country’s military “is determined, consistent and powerful,” Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned on social media. “Ready for offense and defense.”

A direct aerial assault by Iran would be just the second such strike in Israeli history, but the second in four months.

During Tehran’s large but well-telegraphed missile and drone barrage in April, launched after a deadly Israeli strike on an Iranian military leader in Damascus, Israel was able to deflect most of the incoming fire with help from a U.S.-led military alliance.

But a coordinated attack by Iran and Hezbollah, each with a massive missile arsenal, could threaten to overwhelm Israel’s air defense network. And it was uncertain whether Arab nations would exhibit the same level of support for the U.S.-led coalition that they did in April.

In a sign of Washington’s continued investment in Israeli security, Gallant spoke again with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Tuesday, their fifth call since a July 28 missile strike that killed a group of children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and kicked off the latest standoff. Israel and the United States blamed Hezbollah for that attack; the group denied responsibility.

Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, head of U.S. Central Command, was in Israel on Monday for talks with military leaders, a visit hailed by Gallant as “a direct translation of U.S. support for Israel into action.”

Behind the scenes, though, there is growing friction between the United States and Israel. White House officials responded with surprise and outrage to Haniyeh’s July 31 assassination, which they saw as a setback to their months-long quest to secure a cease-fire in Gaza – a fitful process they believed was making progress, according to three people familiar with the White House’s thinking. Like others in this report, they spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

While Israel has declined to comment on Haniyeh’s killing, it informed U.S. officials immediately afterward that it was responsible. On Tuesday, Hamas announced that Yehiya Sinwar – already the leader of Hamas in Gaza and the architect of the Oct. 7 attack – would replace Haniyeh as head of the group’s political bureau.

Analysts have noted that unlike Sinwar, who is believed to be hiding in a tunnel network under Gaza, Haniyeh lived in Qatar and traveled abroad, deepening questions about why Netanyahu would have chosen this explosive moment to strike.

“If your aim was to close the deal, why do Haniyeh now and do it in a way that forces the Iranians to respond?” said Dennis Ross, a former American envoy to Israel.

Over the course of the conflict, many U.S. officials have come to see Netanyahu, rather than Iran, as the chief wild card in containing a broader regional conflagration, according to several senior administration officials. Israel has repeatedly launched strikes on Hezbollah and Iranian commanders without first informing the United States, enraging Biden officials and the president himself.

Netanyahu – increasingly at odds with his top security officials over his insistence that Israel must press on militarily against Hamas rather than accept a cease-fire and hostage release deal – also appears to have changed his terms for a potential agreement after Biden publicly laid out a plan that he said had Israeli sign-off.

Frank Lowenstein, who served as special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations under President Barack Obama, said Netanyahu has “put the U.S. in an impossible position.”

“He is provoking a response that could drag us into a war, but there’s nobody openly questioning it because of course we’re going to stand with Israel against Iran,” Lowenstein said.

An Israeli official confirmed that a call between Biden and Netanyahu last week, after Haniyeh’s death, was “tense.” Still, there are no signs that Biden is willing to exert significant pressure on Israel to try to contain its actions, such as conditioning or limiting military aid, according to several people familiar with internal discussions.

The diplomatic blitz led by Blinken in recent days has included American partners that have routine high-level dealings with Tehran, such as Iraq, and – in a sign of exceptional shared concern – those that don’t.

Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman al-Safadi visited Tehran this weekend to urge regional calm, the first visit of its kind in more than 20 years.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty held a rare call with his Iranian counterpart Saturday, urging restraint. It came after the Biden administration asked the government of President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi to reach out to Iran, according to a former Egyptian official familiar with the situation.

An Iraqi official, meanwhile, said that Blinken, in a call Sunday with Prime Minister Mohmmed Shia al-Sudani, asked that Iraq “do what’s possible” and use its ties with Iran to communicate the importance of de-escalation.

In a call with Blinken on Monday, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said he had relayed to the Iranians that they would be the “biggest loser” if they chose to escalate the conflict, according to an official familiar with the matter.

Iranian officials have informed Arab partners that Iran’s military “will be very responsive and very calculated” in retaliating against Israel, the official said.

Iran has also called for a Wednesday meeting of Muslim nations to support its right to respond. In remarks to foreign diplomats Monday, acting Iranian foreign minister Ali Bagheri cited “the responsibility and the sovereign duty” to hit back.

The Biden administration has long believed that Tehran, undergoing a political transition and struggling with an ailing economy, wants to avoid a full-scale conflict. Nevertheless, Arab officials remained on guard.

“I don’t think there is anything [else] that Arab states could do,” the former Egyptian official said. “Iran has in mind what it has in mind and will execute it.”