How to Argue about Politics on Thanksgiving — with the Facts

The Washington Post · Amber Phillips

12:57 JST, November 28, 2024

If there’s a Thanksgiving when politics could come up, it’s probably this one. The United States just had an emotional presidential election, and the country remains fiercely divided over the best ways to govern and who the right leaders are to do it.

President-elect Donald Trump is already taking steps to make major changes to economic policy, immigration and how government works. He has said he’ll introduce new tariffs on goods coming in from some countries, will start mass deportations and is trying to knock down checks and balances to make sure no one gets in his way.

Here are the facts around some of the topics that might come up at the dinner table on Thursday.

But first: What if someone on the other side of the table wants to ignore facts? The Washington Post’s advice columnist, Carolyn Hax, has an idea: channeling Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a former Democratic presidential candidate who regularly appears on conservative news programs: “Watch clips of Pete Buttigieg, especially on Fox, to see how it’s done: Be respectful, a good sport, be all ‘us’ (no ‘them’) and bring receipts.”

If that doesn’t work, Hax said, simply walk away.

“We do have to work this stuff out eventually, but not while our forehead veins are bulging,” she said.

In terms of receipts, here are the facts on three major political issues.

1. What’s happening with tariffs?

Trump is going full-throttle on his plan to put tariffs on many goods Americans buy from abroad. He said this week that on his first day in office, he’ll put tariffs on everything made in Canada, Mexico and China. These are the countries three biggest trading partners, and it will likely make everything from avocados to cars more expensive.

The argument for more tariffs: Trump said the new tariffs will be aimed at stopping an “invasion” of drugs and migrants into the country. He’s not the only president to use tariffs. The Biden administration kept tariffs Trump placed on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods coming from China. That did raise some prices, but the Biden administration found that the tariffs forced China to adopt trade practices that allowed U.S. companies to compete there.

“When Trump put tariffs on China, there was lots of criticism about it,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which advocates for a balanced federal budget. “But the fact that many of them remained in place is telling.”

But tariffs can harm the economy: While tariffs might be a solid negotiating tool, they can raise price for American consumers, economists say. Unless the United States can figure out a way to make everything from coffee to car parts entirely in the country, foreign companies often just pass the higher prices onto consumers. That could cost the average American family thousands of dollars a year, according to estimates, and could even lead to layoffs in related industries in the United States.

Diane Swonk, chief economist for the global auditing firm KPMG, said tariffs tend to curb growth and stoke inflation: “That is a bad combination.”

2. Will mass deportations work?

Trump said he’ll conduct the biggest deportations in roughly 70 years. His plans could affect millions of people who are in the country illegally, and Trump is considering using the military to round people up and place them in detention camps at the border.

Getting tough on immigration was a deciding factor this election: Many Americans support Trump’s promise for mass deportations, polls regularly show. The number of people coming to the border and asking for asylum under President Joe Biden hit record numbers, until recently. Millions of immigrants – documented and not – live in the United States, where many have spent years putting down roots.

Tom Homan, Trump’s pick to lead the mass deportation effort as “border czar,” told CBS News before the election that quite simply, those who entered illegally need to leave: “On the heels of [a] historic illegal immigration crisis, that has to be done.”

Advocates say immigrants are being wrongly blamed: Trump has blamed immigrants for crime, drugs, high housing prices and other problems he said are plaguing the United States – often using inflammatory and racist language. Most of his claims lack evidence: There is no proof that immigrants commit crimes at rates higher than people born in the United States, and many people trafficking fentanyl into the United States are American citizens, said Alex Nowrasteh, an immigration analyst with the libertarian-leaning Cato Institute.

Immigrants also tend to work in jobs that Americans don’t want, such as farmwork. Deporting many could leave a dent in the U.S. economy and job market. “Immigration is a big reason the employment picture rebounded so strongly from the pandemic’s lows,” writes The Washington Post’s Rachel Siegel.

3. Is American democracy doomed?

Election polls showed that Americans of all political persuasions worry about the state of democracy. Trump got as good or better marks on this issue than Democrats. But Democrats also warned a Trump presidency could upend democracy as we know it in America.

Checks and balances could be severely tested: During Trump’s final days in office in his last term, his supporters rioted at the Capitol as members of Congress certified his election loss. As he prepares to head back to the White House, Trump is already signaling he’ll make radical changes to the presidency by trying to reduce or even eliminate checks on his power that existed the first time around.

He is planning to purge nonpartisan civil servants from the federal government, has asked Republicans in the Senate to abdicate their constitutional duty and let him appoint his Cabinet picks, has pledged retribution on his perceived enemies and will try to fire the lawyers who investigated him at the Justice Department.

Much of the pushback to Trump will play out in the courts, where he has already appointed a large number of judges.

How the checks on the presidency could hold: Trump’s supporters want to see him disrupt the system they feel isn’t working for them. That could spur debates about what aspects of the democratic process, as imperfect as it is, are worth keeping.

Some say checks on the presidency already held after Trump’s extraordinarily controversial pick for attorney general, Matt Gaetz, faced pushback in Congress. Gaetz, lacking support from some senate Republicans, dropped out eight days after Trump picked him. The incoming Senate majority leader, John Thune (R-South Dakota), recently said that Congress “sometimes will have to put the brakes on” when it comes to expanding presidential powers.

Meredith McGehee, an ethics government expert who used to head the nonprofit Issue One, said the “best-case scenario” is what happened during the president-elect’s first administration: “Trump did something outrageous, and people were pretty shocked, and it activated people,” said.

But, she said, “the worst enemy of self government is apathy and cynicism.”