US Election: Trump Promises to Bring Lasting Peace to a Tumultuous Middle East. Fixing It Won’t Be Easy

AP

11:33 JST, November 7, 2024

TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — Donald Trump will return to the U.S. presidency at a time of unprecedented conflict and uncertainty in the Middle East. He has vowed to fix it.

But Trump’s history of strong support for Israel coupled with his insistence during the campaign that the war in Gaza should end quickly, the isolationist forces in the Republican party and his penchant for unpredictability raise a mountain of questions over how his second presidency will affect the region at this pivotal moment.

Barring the achievement of elusive cease-fires before the inauguration, Trump will ascend to the highest office in the country as a brutal war in Gaza still rages and Israel presses its offensive against the Lebanese Hezbollah militant group. A conflagration between Iran and Israel shows no signs of abating — nor do Israel’s conflicts with Iranian proxies in Iraq and Yemen — and Iran’s nuclear program remains a top concern for Israel.

Trump says he wants peace, but how?

Throughout his campaign, Trump has vowed to bring peace to the region.

“Get it over with and let’s get back to peace and stop killing people,” Trump said of the conflict in Gaza in an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in April.

Israel launched the war in response to Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, when militants killed 1,200 people in Israel and kidnapped 250, with dozens still in Gaza. Israel’s offensive has killed more than 43,000 people, according to Gaza health officials, whose count does not distinguish between civilians and fighters, though they say more than half of the dead are women and children.

The war has ignited a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, driven Israel into increasing international isolation, with two world courts examining charges of war crimes, and has sparked a wave of protests on American campuses that have fueled debate over the U.S. role as Israel’s key military and diplomatic supporter.

International mediators from the U.S., Egypt and Qatar have tried unsuccessfully to bring about a lasting cease-fire.

Yet Trump has repeatedly urged to Israel “finish the job” and destroy Hamas — but hasn’t said how.

“Does finish the job mean you have a free hand to act in dealing with the remnants of Hamas? Or does finish the job mean the war has to come to an end now?” asked David Makovsky, director of the program on Arab-Israel Relations at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “That’s part of the enigmas here.”

Netanyahu is pinning his hopes on a pro-Israel Trump administration

Uncertainty also shrouds how Trump will engage with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During his first term, Trump offered broad support for the Israeli leader’s hard-line policies, including unilaterally withdrawing from a deal meant to rein in Iran’s nuclear program that Netanyahu long opposed.

Trump also recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, bolstering its claim over the disputed city, and Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, captured from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war. He presented a peace plan with the Palestinians widely seen as favoring Israel. Settlement-building in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, seen as an obstacle to Palestinian statehood, surged under his presidency.

Trump also helped secure agreements between Israel and four Arab countries to normalize ties that were not contingent on progress toward Palestinian statehood — a major victory for Netanyahu. The Israeli leader hopes to replicate those successes with a deal with Saudi Arabia.

The leaders had a falling out after Netanyahu congratulated President Joe Biden following the 2020 elections — a move Trump viewed as a slight from his loyal ally, though Netanyahu visited Trump in Florida this year.

Under Biden, the U.S. has been critical at times and slowed some weapons deliveries in response to Israel’s conduct in Gaza. Netanyahu is likely hoping that Trump’s return will loosen any restraints on Israel to pursue its war goals. The American leader could also work to challenge a potential international war crimes arrest warrant for Netanyahu. And a smoother relationship with Washington could help improve the Israeli leader’s own popular support.

“He has the most pro-Israel record of any president,” said Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to Washington. “The hope is here that there’ll be more of the same.”

Neither Netanyahu nor Trump has a clear vision for postwar Gaza

Netanyahu leads a far-right government whose key members have vowed to topple his rule if the war in Gaza ends with anything short of Hamas’ destruction. They support resettling Gaza and are enthusiastic about a Trump presidency — and their influence will only grow now that Netanyahu has fired his defense minister over his more pragmatic approach to the conflict.

Their grip on the government and over Netanyahu’s political future helps explain why Netanyahu has not spelled out a clear vision for a postwar Gaza.

The Biden administration has favored having the war-ravaged territory governed by the Western-backed Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the West Bank. Netanyahu has rejected that idea and insists on the right for the Israeli military to operate there.

Trump has not outlined a clear vision, although he has said developers could make Gaza “better than Monaco” because it has “the best location in the Middle East, the best water, the best everything.”

Diana Buttu, a former adviser to Palestinian leaders, said a lack of a firm U.S. vision for Gaza, coupled with a politically powerful Israeli far right, made the future for people in Gaza and for Palestinians in general grim.

“I don’t see this as a president who is going to care about Palestinians,” she said.

Will Trump help defend Israel against Iran or choose America first?

In Lebanon, Israel is battling the Iranian-backed Hezbollah with both a ground invasion and strikes on Hezbollah targets. The militant group has fired thousands of rockets and drones at Israeli communities, killing dozens and displacing 60,000. Israel’s offensive, meanwhile, has displaced over 1 million people in Lebanon and killed more than 3,000.

U.S. mediation efforts there too have been fruitless. Trump, who has a Lebanese-American son-in-law, recently posted on the social platform X that as president he would “stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon.”

But a key question is how much Trump will be swayed by his America First instincts.

The U.S. has played a central role in diplomatic efforts throughout the war, and an even more robust role in helping Israel defend itself against Iran and its allies.

The U.S. has sent military assets to the region, helped Israel thwart two missile attacks by Iran and even has U.S. soldiers in Israel to operate a sophisticated air defense system. But any effective Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a target it avoided in its strike last month, will likely need greater U.S. military involvement.

Accusations that Iran has hacked campaign associates and concerns about the potential for Tehran to carry out violence against Trump or members of his administration could deepen his antipathy toward the country.

While Trump has indicated he will focus on domestic affairs, the Mideast could be an outlier.

He enjoys a wide base of support from evangelical Christians, who are staunchly pro-Israel, and his son-in-law and former adviser Jared Kushner was a prominent voice in support of the country in his first administration.

“As Trump is likely to navigate between those forces mostly based on his intuition,” said Udi Sommer, an expert on U.S.-Israel relations at Tel Aviv University, “uncertainty will likely define his approach.”