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The Yomiuri Shimbun A candidate running for the upcoming House of Representatives election seeks support in Hiroshima on Tuesday.
The Yomiuri Shimbun
15:56 JST, October 17, 2024
The Liberal Democratic Party is expected to lose seats in proportional representation segments of the upcoming House of Representatives election, according to a Yomiuri Shimbun nationwide survey.
The focus will be on whether the LDP and Komeito can secure a majority of 89 seats in the 176-seat proportional representation race. On the opposition side, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is projected to gain more seats, while the Japan Innovation Party is struggling, according to an opinion poll and information obtained by Yomiuri bureaus across the nation to gauge voter sentiment in the early stages of campaigning for the Oct. 27 election.
“In addition to support from Komeito in the proportional representation race, I ask you to give us the strength to lead the country in the years to come,” Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said in a speech to support an LDP member in Itano, Tokushima Prefecture, on Wednesday. Ishiba is also president of the LDP.
In the previous lower house election, the LDP won 72 proportional presentation seats, but the figure is likely to be about 60 in the forthcoming election. There is fierce competition for some seats in the proportional presentation blocs of Hokkaido, Tohoku, northern Kanto, Tokyo and Tokai. so the number of LDP seats could fall below 60.
The LDP has managed to solidify less than 80% of its support base, lagging behind other major parties, which have secured about 80% to 90% of their supporters. Another challenge for the LDP is that its support from voters who are not affiliated with any party has not reached 10% of the total. The issue of politics and money appears to be affecting voter sentiment.
Komeito is likely to maintain about 20 seats, essentially unchanged from the 23 it won in the previous election. As a result, the combined number of LDP and Komeito seats is expected to be in the 70-90 range. In the previous election, the two parties won a total of 95 seats.
CDPJ support higher in Hokkaido
Among the opposition parties, the CDPJ is likely to win somewhere from 40 to 49 proportional representation seats. The party has captured the backing of about 90% of its support base, while also garnering support from about 20% of voters with no party affiliation, which is significantly higher than other parties.
Compared with other age segments, support for the CDPJ is higher among people in their 60s, at more than 20%, and people in their 70s, at slightly under 30%. Depending on the situation, the party could aim for 50 to 59 seats.
By bloc, support for the CDPJ is particularly high in Hokkaido, where the party has maintained a strong support base since the days of its predecessor, the Democratic Party of Japan. The CDPJ is projected to win three proportional representation seats in the Hokkaido bloc, which is close to the projected figure for the LDP.
The JIP made a significant leap in the previous election by winning 25 proportional representation seats, but could end up with only 10 to 19 this time. Although the JIP has consolidated support from 80% of its supporters, it has secured backing from fewer than 10% of voters with no party affiliation, less than the CDPJ and the LDP.
In its stronghold of the Kinki bloc, the JIP is expected to win eight proportional representation seats, down from 10 seats in the previous election. This likely reflects the party’s lagging popularity, which is mainly due to public criticism of the whistleblowing scandal involving former Hyogo Gov. Motohiko Saito, whom the party endorsed in the 2021 Hyogo gubernatorial election.
JCP likely to maintain seats
The Japanese Communist Party looks likely to win about 10 proportional representation seats, and the Democratic Party for the People is expected to win a single-digit number. These two parties are likely to secure a similar level of proportional representation seats as they did in the previous election.
The Reiwa Shinsengumi is aiming to double its seats from the three it won last time.
The political group known as the Conservative Party of Japan targeting about four proportional representation seats, including one in the Tokai bloc where its coleader Takashi Kawamura, a former Nagoya mayor, has a stronghold.
