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REUTERS/Jason Lee/File Photo/File Photo People walk past the headquarters of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, in Beijing, China September 28, 2018.
Reuters
12:50 JST, September 27, 2024
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s central bank on Friday lowered interest rates and injected liquidity into the banking system as Beijing ramps up stimulus to pull economic growth back towards this year’s roughly 5% target and fight deflationary pressures.
More fiscal measures are expected to be announced before China’s week-long holidays starting on Oct. 1, after a meeting of the Communist Party’s top leaders showed an increased sense of urgency about mounting economic headwinds.
On the heels of the Politburo huddle, China plans to issue special sovereign bonds worth about 2 trillion yuan ($284.43 billion) this year as part of fresh fiscal stimulus, two sources with knowledge of the matter have told Reuters.
“We believe the persistent growth weakness has hit policymakers’ pain threshold, and the policy put has been triggered,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.
Chinese stocks are on track for the best week since 2008 on stimulus expectations.
The world’s second-largest economy faces strong deflationary pressures due to a sharp property market downturn and frail consumer confidence, which has exposed its over-reliance on exports in an increasingly tense global trade environment.
A wide range of economic data in recent months has missed forecasts, raising concerns among economists that the growth target was at risk and that a longer-term structural slowdown could be in play.
On Friday, data showed industrial profits swinging back to a sharp contraction in August.
As flagged on Tuesday by Governor Pan Gongsheng, the People’s Bank of China on Friday trimmed the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, known as the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), by 50 basis points, the second reduction this year.
The move is expected to release 1 trillion yuan ($142.5 billion) in liquidity into the banking system and was accompanied by a cut in the benchmark interest rate on seven-day reverse repurchase agreements by 20 bps to 1.50%.
The cuts take effect on Friday and Pan, in rare forward-looking remarks, left the door open to another RRR reduction later this year.
Given weak credit demand from households and businesses, investors are more focused on the fiscal measures which are widely expected to be announced in coming days.
Reuters reported on Thursday that 1 trillion yuan due to be raised via special bonds will be used to increase subsidies for a consumer goods replacement program and for the upgrade of large-scale business equipment.
They will also be used to provide a monthly allowance of about 800 yuan, or $114, per child to all households with two or more children, excluding the first child.
China also aims to raise another 1 trillion yuan via a separate special sovereign debt issuance to help local governments tackle their debt problems.
Most of China’s fiscal stimulus still goes into investment, but returns are dwindling and the spending has saddled local governments with $13 trillion in debt.
The looming fiscal measures would mark a slight shift towards stimulating consumption, a direction Beijing has said for more than a decade that it wants to take but has made little progress on.
China’s household spending is less than 40% of annual economic output, some 20 percentage points below the global average. Investment, by comparison, is 20 points above but has been fueling much more debt than growth.
The politburo also pledged to stabilize the troubled real estate market, saying the government should expand a whitelist of housing projects that can receive further financing and revitalize idle land.
The September meeting is not usually a forum for discussing the economy, which suggests growing anxiety among officials.
“The ‘shock and awe’ strategy could be meant to jumpstart the markets and boost confidence,” Nomura analysts said in a note.
“But eventually it is still necessary for Beijing to introduce well thought policies to address many of the deep-rooted problems, particularly regarding how to stabilize the property sector.”
