CDPJ, Komeito Form New Party: Could This be the Catalyst for Political Realignment?

Editorial

14:57 JST, January 16, 2026

The sudden move to dissolve the House of Representatives has created the possibility of a major unifying force emerging for the opposition parties, which had been expected to be put on the defensive in the election.

Will Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi be able to build a stable foundation for her administration through the lower house election as she intended? Or will a new party that advocates centrist or reformist policies capture voters’ hopes? The upcoming election will be a short-term battle that holds the potential for political realignment.

Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan President Yoshihiko Noda and Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito held talks and agreed to form a new party. They said that, ahead of the lower house election, which is expected as early as early February, lower house Diet members from both the CDPJ and Komeito will join the new party first.

They stated they would also accept members from other parties who agree with their centrist policy line.

Despite being the largest opposition party, the CDPJ won only 7.39 million votes in the proportional representation segment in the July 2025 House of Councillors election, less than either the Democratic Party for the People or Sanseito. Similarly, Komeito secured only 5.21 million votes, about 60% of its peak in 2004 at 8.62 million votes.

The decision to form a new party likely stems from a sense of urgency within both the CDPJ and Komeito that if this situation goes on, their party strength could continue sliding downhill.

Takaichi’s sudden move to dissolve the lower house this time is likely based on her calculation that victory is possible while her Cabinet’s approval ratings are high. In fact, an LDP survey conducted last month indicated that a single-party majority by the LDP had come into sight.

However, the outlook for the lower house election seems to be increasingly uncertain.

The new party intends to incorporate five pillars in its platform, such as social security policies mindful of the burden on working generations, and the advancement of realistic foreign and defense policies. The party plans to include in its basic policies calls for constitutional amendments to add an emergency clause and recognize the status of the Self-Defense Forces.

These basic policies have the potential to attract support not only from conventional CDPJ and Komeito supporters but also from a certain number of conservatives. Noda emphasized, “An opportunity has arrived to reach both moderate conservatives and liberals [with our policies].”

Public opinion is diversifying, ushering in an era of multiparty politics in which it is difficult for any single party, including the LDP, to take the reins of the national government alone. Against this backdrop, the upcoming lower house election will clearly test how the new party will impact Japan’s political landscape.

However, it remains to be seen whether the new party will be widely accepted by voters.

The new party also shows signs of vulnerability. Can it take charge of the government while pledging policies such as providing various benefits without relying on tax increases? It also does not mention concrete measures to strengthen defense capabilities, leaving much to be desired.

In the lower house election, the new party needs to present more realistic and responsible pledges to demonstrate its ability to take the reins of government.

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 16, 2026)