Lower House to be Dissolved: Can Takaichi Secure Stable Foundation for Her Administration?

Editorial

14:43 JST, January 15, 2026

The basic policy of “responsible and proactive public finances” advocated by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration, as well as a new ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party, will likely be put to the judgment of voters.

A House of Representatives election will be held as a turning point in determining whether Takaichi can gain public trust and build a stable foundation for her administration.

Takaichi has met with LDP Secretary General Shunichi Suzuki, JIP leader Hirofumi Yoshimura and others, conveying her intention to dissolve the lower house “at an early date” during the ordinary Diet session scheduled to be convened on Jan. 23. She appears to be considering dissolution at the start of the Diet session. She is expected to make a formal announcement on the matter on Jan. 19.

It is highly likely the lower house election will follow the schedule of an official start to campaigning on Jan. 27, with voting and ballot counting on Feb. 8. In that case, the period from dissolution to voting day would be 16 days, shorter than the postwar record of 17 days under the administration of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. This seems to be aimed at minimizing the political vacuum caused by an election.

Since taking office in October last year, Takaichi has emphasized prioritizing policy implementation over dissolution. The current term of lower house Diet members will last until October 2028, so there are nearly three years remaining.

Consequently, some opposition parties, such as the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, have criticized this dissolution as “a strategy of partisan self-interest that expects victory in a lower house election while the Cabinet’s approval ratings are high.”

However, the right to make a decision about a lower house dissolution is considered to be solely in the hands of the prime minister. Past prime ministers have also made decisions about dissolution based on such factors as the political climate and public opinion trends at the time.

During last year’s extraordinary Diet session, a supplementary budget exceeding ¥18 trillion for fiscal 2025 was passed, including measures to combat rising prices such as support for household electricity and gas bills. The Takaichi administration has taken certain steps against inflation, so criticism that it is disregarding policy implementation misses the mark.

Takaichi likely aims to gain momentum for policy implementation by dissolving the lower house and holding a general election.

The ruling coalition of the LDP and the JIP holds only a narrow majority with 233 seats in the lower house. With no clear prospect of expanding the coalition framework to include parties such as the Democratic Party for the People, increasing seats in the lower house should stabilize the handling of the administration.

Dissolving the lower house would not change the fact that the ruling parties lack a majority in the House of Councillors. Nevertheless, if the ruling parties win the lower house election, it could facilitate smoother Diet management with a fresh show of support from the public.

What both ruling and opposition parties have to be mindful of is that this election campaign will be an unusual one, taking place in the midst of winter.

In colder regions such as the northern parts of Japan, election campaigning could be particularly tough. All of the candidates’ teams must take every precaution to ensure safety, including measures against the cold and accident prevention.

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 15, 2026)