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If the United States withdraws from the framework for preventing global warming, the momentum for international cooperation will be lost and decarbonization efforts will be set back. It is urged that former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is returning to the U.S. presidency, will take a prudent approach.
The 29th Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) has kicked off in Azerbaijan.
In recent years, the threat of global warming has become more evident with a spate of abnormal weather events, such as torrential rains and heat waves, in various parts of the world. In October, Spain experienced flooding that killed more than 200 people.
Efforts over the next 10 years will greatly influence the extent to which the temperature increases in the future. The aim of this conference is to accelerate decarbonization efforts by discussing financial support for developing countries and raising the greenhouse gas reduction targets of each country.
However, the future of the conference has suddenly become uncertain after Trump, who is reluctant to take action on global warming, won the U.S. presidential election immediately before the opening of the conference.
Trump has stated that climate change is a “hoax.” During his first term, the United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement, which calls for limiting the increase in the global average temperature to 1.5 C compared to pre-industrial levels.
The United States returned to the pact under the administration of President Joe Biden, but Trump has said that Washington will leave the pact again. Trump has also indicated his intention to boost oil and natural gas drilling.
The United States is the world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases. If the United States exits the Paris Agreement again, there is strong concern that international pressure on China — the world’s largest emitter — to reduce emissions and provide financial support to developing countries will weaken.
However, in the United States, state governments, corporations, the financial industry and other entities are actively promoting decarbonization efforts as environmental awareness is growing among citizens. If the shift to renewable energy is delayed at this point, the technological capabilities and competitiveness of U.S. companies may be undermined.
For years, there have been confrontations between developed countries, which have been emitting large amounts of greenhouse gases, and developing countries, which have been affected by climate change, at COP conferences. In recent years, however, China and other countries that were previously on the side of developing nations have been pressed to take action due to their increased emissions, making it difficult for the conferences to reconcile conflicting interests.
In addition, with U.S. leadership declining and nativist extreme-right forces rising in Europe, which has led measures against global warming, efforts to combat global warming are losing momentum.
Against this backdrop, Japan’s role is growing. While continuing to persuade the United States and China to fulfill their responsibilities, Japan itself must work to achieve a goal set by the government to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050.
