Takaichi Leverages Motives of Defunct, Extant Factions to Gain Votes to Win LDP Presidency, Runoff Strategy Pays Off

By Masashi Nakata and Koichiro Shigematsu / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

6:00 JST, October 6, 2025

Former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi leveraged hidden motives to rake in votes to win the runoff of Saturday’s Liberal Democratic Party presidential election.

Takaichi, 64, garnered substantial support from rank-and-file party members and members of LDP-affiliated bodies, defeating Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 44, who had been considered to be favored among LDP Diet members.

As the party is facing declining momentum, many LDP lawmakers felt the need to follow the wishes of rank-and-file party members and members of LDP-affiliated bodies. Also, the motives and rivalries of defunct and extant factions ultimately helped Takaichi drive to victory.

During the campaign, Takaichi lagged behind in securing the votes of LDP lawmakers, so her camp placed more emphasis on gathering votes from rank-and-file party members and members of LDP-affiliated bodies, groups among which she had strength. Her camp also worked to persuade Diet members — in the event of a runoff — to vote for the candidate who garnered the most votes from rank-and-file members and members of LDP-affiliated bodies.

In the final stretch of the campaign, lawmakers in her camp launched a phone blitz targeting Diet members in the other candidates’ camps, persistently stressing that rank-and-file party members hold views that are closer to those of voters in the public.

In the first round of voting, Takaichi secured a decisive 35-vote lead over Koizumi among rank-and-file party members and members of LDP-affiliated bodies, a result that aligned with her aim.

In her pre-runoff speech, Takaichi said, “Rank-and-file party members and people across the nation are watching [this race] with bated breath,” stirring up LDP lawmakers keenly aware of future elections.

One lawmaker who voted for Takaichi said: “If you ignore the will of the people, you’ll get a backlash at elections. That’s the way many lawmakers would think.”

Aso’s revenge

Within the party, many did not see Takaichi’s victory coming. Behind it lay intense maneuvering among a still-extant faction and now-defunct factions.

“We must properly spread our conservative wings,” LDP Supreme Adviser Taro Aso said in phone calls to his faction members on Saturday morning. As the leader of the only remaining LDP faction, he informed members of the faction’s intention to vote for Takaichi in the runoff.

The decision stemmed from his belief that the LDP needs to hold onto its conservative supporters. The fact that Koizumi’s camp had several lawmakers who were not on good terms with Aso also affected the decision, according to a source in the faction.

Aso, who supported Takaichi in the runoff of the leadership race last September, got his revenge this time and left the venue with a beaming smile.

Even a defunct faction, which was seen as distancing itself from conservative Takaichi, experienced an unexpected development.

Former LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi, 69, who also ran in the race, believed Koizumi would gain the upper hand in the runoff and saw strong support within his own camp for the agricultural minister.

However, in reality, many in Motegi’s camp expressed support for Takaichi, who has strong backing among rank-and-file party members, and in the end, the majority of the now-defunct faction led by Motegi shifted their support to Takaichi.

In addition, votes also flowed to Takaichi from members of the now-defunct faction led by former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, which rallied behind Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba under Kishida’s instruction in the previous LDP leadership race’s runoff.

Dysfunctional sign

“The signal was to use the right hand, but I followed what rank-and-file party members wanted,” a lawmaker in Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi’s camp revealed after the runoff. Several other lawmakers in his camp echoed the remarks.

The lawmaker was referring to a planned signal meant to unify the Hayashi camp for the runoff. If House of Representatives member Masatoshi Ishida — the first one from the Hayashi camp to vote in the runoff — cast his vote with his right hand, it meant a ballot for Koizumi, and with his left hand, for Takaichi. However, several lawmakers in his camp decided to support Takaichi in the end, and the signal did not function effectively.

Hayashi, 64, was a senior member of the defunct Kishida faction. However, Kishida distanced himself from Hayashi during the campaign, and dissatisfaction with his stance contributed to the defections in the runoff voting.

Kishida did not make it clear about who to support, but many in Hayashi’s camp saw the former prime minister as leaning toward Koizumi. Kishida and Hayashi are rivals vying for influence among former members of the defunct Kishida faction.

“If Kishida had properly supported Hayashi, we could have united and acted together in the runoff,” said a senior member of the Hayashi camp.