Sanae Takaichi, Shigeru Ishiba, Shinjiro Koizumi Fight to Reach Runoff in LDP Presidential Race; Ballots Set to Start Arriving

The Yomiuri Shimbun

17:59 JST, September 17, 2024

The top three candidates in the Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential race are moving to secure votes from the party’s rank and file, with the election set for Sept. 27.

Recent Yomiuri Shimbun polls showed three candidates with a high chance of reaching a runoff: economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, 63; former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba, 67; and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 43. The three are reviewing their campaign strategies, aiming to ensure they will place at least second in first-round voting so they can reach the runoff.

1st among rank and file

“I have to win, no matter what it takes. Help me secure the most votes from the party’s rank and file,” said Takaichi, speaking loudly to about 30 local LDP politicians on Monday in Kanazawa.

According to a Yomiuri Shimbun poll that surveyed rank-and-file members and members of groups affiliated with the party on Saturday and Sunday, 25% of respondents supported Takaichi, making her a close second to Ishiba, who had the most support at 26%. Combining the results with a survey of LDP Diet members showed Takaichi and Ishiba tied with 123 votes.

Takaichi is looking to win the most votes from rank-and-file members since, with all the talk of an early dissolution of the lower house, she believes that House of Representatives members are likely to vote for whomever wins the most support from the rank and file, according to a senior official with Takaichi’s campaign.

Subhead: National election concerns

“As elections for both houses of the Diet are just around the corner, it will be important for each Diet member to explain to voters in their electoral district whom they voted for in the LDP presidential election and why,” Ishiba told reporters on Monday in Komatsu, Ishikawa Prefecture. The House of Councillors election is set for next summer.

Ishiba has made little headway with Diet members, finishing sixth in the survey that asked whom they would vote for. “We will work harder to win support from Diet members such as through phone calls,” said a senior official at his campaign strategy headquarters.

A robust team

Koizumi held a campaign rally with about 40 supporters, including Ishikawa prefectural assembly members, in Kanazawa on Monday. “Who understands the feelings and opinions of local assembly members and can manage the entire party? I’ll fight my hardest so that you will bet on me,” he said.

In a Yomiuri Shimbun opinion poll in August, respondents were asked who the best choice for LDP president was, and Koizumi came in first among respondents supporting the LDP at 22%. However, Koizumi is now calling for a review of regulations on firing employees and a new system to allow married couples to opt for separate family names, which has apparently drawn concern from some party members.

Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ken Saito, who quit his bid for the party’s presidency, has joined Koizumi’s camp. Saito is known as a solid policy expert. Some experienced and capable lawmakers as well as mid-ranking ones who had supported Saito have also joined Koizumi’s camp, including former Justice Minister Yoshihisa Furukawa and Seiji Kihara, acting LDP secretary general and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s close aide.

“Our team now has a wide variety of members, so we’ll be able to appeal to a wider range of people,” a close aide to Koizumi said.

Ballots set to arrive

Former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, came in fourth in the latest polls. “I intend to deliver my message more forcefully so that I’ll be using my limited time more effectively and efficiently,” he told reporters.

Ballots, in the form of prepaid postcards, were expected to be delivered to rank-and-file members around Tuesday. Since the ballots must be returned by Sept. 26, the party headquarters has called for voters to mail their postcards by the morning of Sept. 24. Many voters are expected to send in their ballots as soon as they receive them.

“The rank-and-file vote is being decided now, in these few days after the three-day weekend,” an experienced LDP lawmaker said.