Koizumi’s Momentum Makes Other Candidates Wary; LDP Presidential Race Continues Heating Up

By Michitaka Kaiya and Masashi Nakata / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

1:00 JST, September 8, 2024

Aiming to become Japan’s youngest prime minister since the end of World War II, former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi has officially announced his candidacy for the upcoming Liberal Democratic Party presidential election and has gained momentum, making other candidate camps wary.

Koizumi, 43, has strength with his reformist stance and influential voice, but he has been criticized for his lack of experience. Koizumi is likely to be put to the test in policy debates ahead of the LDP leadership race to be held on Sept. 27.

“To make the LDP truly change, the party must elect a leader who can emphatically accelerate reform,” he said at a press conference held Friday to announce his bid for the LDP presidency.

Koizumi made it clear that his top priority will be to restore public trust in the LDP through political and party reforms. “To end the old-fashioned LDP, the first thing I will undertake as prime minister is political reform in order to restore empathy,” he said.

A senior figure in the Koizumi camp said, “Koizumi was able to deliver a strong message that conveys his determination in his own way.”

In surveys conducted by media outlets, Koizumi has regularly ranked among the top candidates to be the next LDP president. Many LDP members believe that Koizumi will have an advantage in garnering votes from rank-and-file party members and members of affiliated groups in the presidential race, who are likely to reflect public opinion trends.

If Koizumi becomes party president and then prime minister, he will become the youngest prime minister since the end of World War II, breaking the record set by Shinzo Abe, who assumed the premiership in 2006 at the age of 52. There are high hopes for Koizumi’s youthfulness — and similarly for that of former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, another candidate for the LDP presidency — as the ruling party wants to regain its momentum after being hit hard by the recent political funds scandal involving party factions.

Concerns over inexperience

However, some people have voiced concerns about Koizumi’s lack of experience as a politician and his thoughtless remarks. When he was environment minister, he said: “On tackling such a big-scale issue like climate change, it’s got to be fun, it’s got to be cool. It’s got to be sexy, too.” Opposition parties criticized such remarks, calling them nonsense.

Being mindful of such criticism, Koizumi apparently carefully prepared for the press conference on Friday.

When asked if his qualifications could be called into question due to his past remarks as environment minister, Koizumi responded, “If my remarks were not properly conveyed, I regret that.”

“I intend to set up the best team to make up for what I lack,” he added.

During the press conference, Koizumi often looked at a manuscript, which was covered with sticky notes, and carefully selected the words he spoke.

Currently, key members of the Koizumi camp are policy experts around the same age as Koizumi, such as Masanobu Ogura, a former minister in charge of measures against the declining birthrate who belonged to the faction led by LDP heavyweight Toshihiro Nikai, and Fumiaki Kobayashi, a former state digital minister who was a member of the faction led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

“We want to have a well-balanced group of members in the future regardless of age,” a person close to Koizumi said.

Multiple rivals

A mid-ranking lawmaker who supports Takayuki Kobayashi expressed strong caution about Koizumi, saying, “I feel that a real contender who has both youthfulness and name recognition has emerged.”

Former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba, 67, has been competing with Koizumi for the top spot in opinion surveys on the party presidential race. “I’m neither young nor good-looking. I’m not trying to force myself to be on par with him,” Ishiba told reporters, indicating that he intends to push his experience and ability to debate.

Similarly, other candidates — such as Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 63; LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi, 68; economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, 63; and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato, 68 — have extensive experience serving in key positions. They also appear to plan to demonstrate their policy expertise in debates and other events in the lead-up to the LDP presidential election.

“It is highly possible that Koizumi will reveal faults during the lengthy election campaign,” a former cabinet member said.

Siege against Koizumi

The possibility is growing that the LDP presidential race will head to a runoff due to the unusually large number of candidates. Some campaign camps have now set their sights on possible alliances with other camps.

“If [my candidate] and Koizumi face each other in a runoff, ***[my]*** candidate will have a chance to win,” a senior figure in one campaign camp said. “If forces who are cautious about generational change and those who value political experience are brought together, their votes could outnumber [those for Koizumi].”

On the other hand, some members of Koizumi’s camp have expressed caution, with one saying, “A siege [against Koizumi] could be created behind the scenes.”