Political Turmoil in Germany, France: Dark Clouds Cast over Stability in Europe

Editorial

15:22 JST, December 19, 2024

The coalition government in Germany has collapsed, and the French cabinet has been forced to resign en masse. Both countries, which are at the core of Europe, are experiencing political turmoil, and there are concerns that the impact could spread to Europe as a whole.

A confidence vote was held in the German parliament, or Bundestag, for Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The vote failed to reach a majority and was rejected. In response to the no-confidence result, the general election that had been scheduled for September next year will be moved up to February.

The Scholz administration, which was inaugurated in 2021, had been a coalition of three parties with different philosophies, including the center-left Social Democratic Party led by Scholz.

However, due to conflict over the budget compilation, Scholz, who supports an aggressive fiscal policy, dismissed the finance minister of the center-right Free Democrats Party, who instead called for austere fiscal measures. The FDP left the coalition, and the administration now consisting of ruling parties that lack a majority has come to a standstill.

Scholz is attempting to resolve the situation through a general election. However, the SDP’s approval ratings are falling behind the opposition parties. It remains to be seen whether political stability can be restored.

Meanwhile, in France’s lower house, the National Assembly, a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet of Prime Minister Michel Barnier was passed, forcing the Cabinet to resign en masse just less than three months after its inauguration.

Following the defeat of the ruling coalition in elections for the European Parliament in June, the administration of President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly in an attempt to regain its footing and decided to hold a general election. However, the ruling coalition was defeated and Macron has been forced to face the difficulties of managing a government with a ruling minority.

The National Assembly cannot be dissolved for a year after the election, and there are concerns that appointments of and no-confidence votes for prime ministers will be repeated in the future. A further decline in Macron’s leadership will be inevitable.

What Germany and France have in common is that against the backdrop of dissatisfaction with high prices and immigration policies, they both face growing far-right forces that strongly oppose European Union integration and leftists who call for the expansion of public support, including pensions.

The right-wing Alternative for Germany, which advocates anti-immigrant policies, and the National Rally party, which has roots in the far-right movement, in France are expected to make great strides in next general elections and a presidential election.

If these trends continue, the momentum for social integration based on democracy, freedom and other values that Europe has promoted since the end of World War II will be lost, and this could have a serious impact on the international order.

In addition, the administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, which touts an “America First” policy, will be launched in January. There is a possibility that the United States will scale back support for Ukraine and ask Europe to increase defense spending.

The EU, led by Germany and France, has a large role to play in restoring order and stability in the world. It is hoped that the two countries will quickly escape from their political stalemate.

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Dec. 19, 2024)