China’s Pressure Campaign Threatens Japan’s Economy, But Seafood Sector Could Weather the Storm

By Shodai Niki and Rio Fukumoto / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

2:00 JST, November 22, 2025

China’s recent advisory urging its citizens to refrain from visiting Japan and its suspension of Japanese seafood imports have stoked concerns about the impact on Japan’s economy. This double whammy could also be a major blow to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration at a time when hopes are high for its economic policies.

Susumu Yasuda, president of Harumiya, which operates yakatabune dining boats in Tokyo Bay and on the Sumida River in Tokyo, could not hide his disappointment over the recent developments.

“If we get any more cancellations, it will be devastating,” Yasuda said.

On Saturday, the day after the Chinese government issued its travel advisory, Harumiya had bookings for three Chinese groups canceled. The company, which is based in Koto Ward, Tokyo, estimated these cancellations for about 240 people meant a loss of at least ¥3 million.

About 8.2 million Chinese visited Japan between January and October, an increase of 40% from the same period in 2024, according to the Japan National Tourism Organization. Chinese travelers accounted for 23% of all foreign visitors, the largest share by country or region. Chinese visitor spending reached ¥1.64 trillion from January to September, which was about 20% of all travel spending.

Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at the Nomura Research Institute, has estimated that China’s advisory could cause economic losses of ¥1.79 trillion over the next year. “The hit to businesses involved in domestic travel could also have a negative impact on employment and wages,” Kiuchi told The Yomiuri Shimbun.

Diversified markets

The effective halt of Japanese seafood exports to China, which had resumed only recently, is a stinging blow to people involved in the fisheries industry.

Beijing banned imports of Japanese marine products in August 2023 after treated water was released from the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, which is operated by Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc. This water was discharged into the Pacific Ocean. China’s ban on Japanese seafood imports continued until Nov. 5 — about two years.

The value of these exports to China in 2022, the year before the release of the treated water started, came to ¥87.1 billion, or about 20% of total seafood exports.

However, some observers believe the latest halt in exports will have a limited impact. While the initial ban was in place, many scallop producers who previously exported much of their catch to China diversified their buyers abroad, finding new markets in Vietnam, Thailand and elsewhere.

Even so, with its population of about 1.4 billion people, the Chinese market remains essential for driving economic growth through expanded exports.

“We’ll continue to call for the smooth facilitation of exports,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said at a press conference Thursday. “We’ll also press China to drop restrictions that were kept in place on seafood imports from 10 prefectures.”

Largest trading partner

Tokyo and Beijing have strong economic ties. In 2024, Japan’s exports to China totaled ¥18.86 trillion, while imports from China came to ¥25.31 trillion, according to the Finance Ministry’s trade statistics. China is Japan’s biggest trading partner, and accounts for about 20% of all Japanese exports and imports, which are worth about ¥219 trillion in total.

China is an important trading partner for Japan — and vice versa. If bilateral trade and economic exchange slow down for very long, it could also hurt China’s economy, which is facing multiple headwinds.

The question now is whether China will play any additional cards, such as by tightening restrictions on rare earth exports to Japan, like it did previously to exert pressure over the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture. Strengthening restrictions on trade with Japan would further increase the pain inflicted on the economy.

“The impact is currently limited to sectors such as tourism, but China could also take stronger measures if negotiations reach a stalemate,” said Yusuke Miura, a senior researcher at the NLI Research Institute. “Reducing Japan’s dependence on China would be one way to overcome the problem, but that probably will be difficult to do in the short term.”