Yomiuri Survey: Japan’s LDP Likely to See Big Gains in Proportional Representation Segment in Lower House Election

The Yomiuri Shimbun

16:39 JST, January 29, 2026

The Liberal Democratic Party is likely to see significant gains in the proportional representation segment of the upcoming House of Representatives election on Feb. 8, according to a Yomiuri Shimbun survey.

According to the survey to gauge voter sentiment in the early stages of campaigning, the number of LDP seats is likely to increase in the segment from the 59 it won in the previous lower house election in 2024. The figure could reach a level comparable to the 72 seats it won in the 2021 election, when the ruling party maintained a single party majority.

The LDP appears to have solidified support from about 50% of voters who approve of the Cabinet of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who is also the LDP president. Of the voters who have no party affiliation, about 10% support the LDP while more than half are still undecided.

The LDP usually tends to trail opposition parties over support from independent voters, but it has been roughly on par with the Centrist Reform Alliance in the early stages of the campaign, according to the survey.

The survey also found that the LDP is backed by 10% of Japan Innovation Party supporters.

In contrast, the JIP, the LDP’s coalition partner, is projected to lose seats in the proportional representation segment from the 15 it won in the previous lower house election, potentially falling into single digits.

The CRA, a new party formed by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, looks to be struggling in the proportional representation segment. The CRA is highly likely to fall short of the number of seats the CDPJ and Komeito won in the previous election, when they had 64 seats in total.

Similar to single-seat constituencies, there appear to be no positive effects of the CDPJ-Komeito partnership in the proportional representation segment. Looking specifically at 11 regional blocs in the segment, the CRA could see its seats fall below the combined number of seats previously won by the CDPJ and Komeito in all these blocs except for Shikoku.

The CRA is strengthening its confrontational stance against the Takaichi administration, but it has secured support from only slightly less than half of voters who disapprove of her Cabinet, according to the survey. This indicates that the CRA has not fully attracted voters critical of the Takaichi administration, with opposition parties being in disarray.

As the percentage of support for the CRA among voters aged 18-39 is only about half of that of the Democratic Party for the People, the new party faces the challenge of attracting younger voters.

The DPFP is expected to see results similar to those of the previous lower house election, when it won 17 seats in the proportional representation segment.

However, in the early stages of the campaign, there is no indication of the party making significant gains, such as those seen in the 2024 lower house race and last summer’s House of Councillors election.

Among other opposition parties, Sanseito and Team Mirai are likely to increase their seats.

Sanseito is highly likely to make significant gains from the three seats it won in the previous lower house election.

As Team Mirai is seeing more support among younger voters, the possibility is high for the party to win two seats in the Tokyo bloc and possibly secure a third.