Survey: LDP Majority Appears Within Reach in Lower House Election

The Yomiuri Shimbun

15:08 JST, January 29, 2026

The Liberal Democratic Party appears to be within reach of a single-party majority in the Feb. 8 House of Representatives election, whereas the Centrist Reform Alliance is likely to lose steam, a Yomiuri Shimbun survey has found.

In a survey conducted via telephone and the internet on Tuesday and Wednesday regarding the 465-seat House of Representatives election, The Yomiuri Shimbun explored the early stages of the race for the lower house by combining the results with reporting from its bureaus nationwide.

The LDP is leading the races in both the single-seat constituencies and the proportional representation segment, showing momentum toward winning a majority of 233 seats independently, according to the survey.

The CRA, a new party formed by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, is struggling to gain momentum. It appears likely that the party will fall short of the number of seats the CDPJ and Komeito held prior to the official announcement of the election.

The LDP — which held 198 seats before the election was called — is leading in nearly half of the 289 single-seat constituencies. By region, the party is holding its ground firmly in the Chugoku region and Kyushu, among other areas.

The LDP has the potential to sweep all seats in prefectures with strong conservative foundations, including Toyama and Tottori.

The Japan Innovation Party, the LDP’s coalition partner, with 34 pre-election seats, is likely to maintain its strength mainly in its stronghold of Osaka, but faces an uphill battle in the proportional representation segment.

The LDP-JIP ruling camp is also aiming for at least 261 seats, the “absolute stable majority,” which ensures control over all standing committee chairs and a majority in every committee within the lower house.

The CRA, with a pre-election strength of 167 seats, is edging out the LDP in some urban areas but is seeing its support level off on a nationwide scale.

In the proportional representation segment, the coalition is expected to fall short of the total of 64 seats that the CDPJ and Komeito won in the previous election.

The Democratic Party for the People is likely to at least secure its pre-election strength of 27 seats. The party aims to expand its influence as a “third force” amid the showdown between the ruling LDP and the CRA.

Sanseito, which had two pre-election seats, is facing an uphill battle in the single-seat constituencies, where it is fielding 182 candidates, but it is within reach of winning 10 or more seats through proportional representation.

Team Mirai also has a chance of winning multiple seats in the proportional representation segment.

The Japanese Communist Party is struggling and may lose some of its eight pre-election seats. Reiwa Shinsengumi, which also held eight seats, is facing a tough battle, and the focal point for Genzei Yukoku is whether its top officials can retain the five seats.

Both the Conservative Party of Japan and the Social Democratic Party are also facing a tough battle to secure seats.

The survey received responses from 117,533 people via an automated telephone system and 178,735 internet users with Yahoo! Japan IDs, reaching a total of 296,268 respondents.

The situation could change toward the final stage of the campaign, given that a certain number of respondents did not name a candidate or party they intend to vote for.