Dissolution of LDP-Komeito Coalition: It’s Time to Exercise Wisdom for Japan’s Political Stability / First, Hasten to Launch a New Cabinet

Editorial

15:16 JST, October 11, 2025

The free trade system has been on the brink of collapse and there is no end to wars. When the international situation is chaotic and domestic political stability is needed most, dissolving the crucial coalition government is an immeasurable blow.

Nevertheless, the Liberal Democratic Party, the largest party in both houses of the Diet, must spare no effort to launch a new cabinet. It must establish a framework to address a mountain of domestic and foreign issues.

Komeito has decided to withdraw from its coalition government with the LDP. Komeito Chief Representative Tetsuo Saito conveyed this decision during a meeting with LDP President Sanae Takaichi.

Quarter-century relationship to end

Since forming their coalition in October 1999, the LDP and Komeito have played a leading role in Japanese politics for 26 years, even during the period of the then Democratic Party of Japan administration. It can be said that the dissolution of this framework represents a major turning point in politics.

Saito cited “issues of politics and money” as the main reason for deciding to leave the coalition. He apparently thinks it was detrimental to Komeito to have given election endorsements to LDP lawmakers who had failed to report part of the funds they had received in their political funds reports in cases involving LDP factions that violated the Political Funds Control Law.

During the party leaders’ meeting, Saito demanded that Takaichi agree to revise the Political Funds Control Law as a condition for maintaining the coalition. Specifically, he called for limiting the entities eligible to receive donations from corporations and organizations to the party headquarters and prefectural-level organizations.

However, this spring, Komeito had clearly agreed with both the LDP and the Democratic Party for the People that party branches that publish their political funds reports online would be allowed to accept donations.

Raising the bar for its demands seems to have been an attempt to create a plausible reason for leaving the coalition, knowing well that the LDP cannot accept them.

The cases involving LDP factions’ violations of the Political Funds Control Law have been thoroughly investigated by the special investigation squad of the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office and have been almost fully settled in the judicial arena. The lawmakers who failed to report funds they received in their political funds reports have also faced the judgment of voters in elections for both houses of the Diet. Rehashing the issue further is unlikely to yield any new developments.

After the meeting, Takaichi did not hide her dissatisfaction, saying, “I replied that I wanted to take it back to the party and respond to the issue, but I was unilaterally told of the withdrawal [from the coalition].”

But it cannot be denied that Takaichi also lacked consideration for Komeito.

Prior to meeting with Saito, Takaichi had secretly met with DPFP leader Yuichiro Tamaki. Normally, it would be reasonable for Takaichi to first conclude an agreement on the coalition government with Saito, and then move to expand the coalition.

Takaichi’s decision in LDP party personnel matters to remove former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who has strong ties to Komeito and its supporting organization Soka Gakkai, from the position of LDP vice president also appears to have caused a sense of distrust on the Komeito side.

It is believed that Komeito is aiming to display its individuality and restore its party momentum by leaving the coalition.

However, the aging of Soka Gakkai members is a serious issue, and it is said that rebuilding Komeito will not be easy. Komeito earned about 8.6 million votes in the proportional representation segment in the 2004 House of Councillors election, but that fell by about 40% to about 5.2 million in this summer’s upper house election.

For LDP lawmakers as well, losing Komeito’s votes — estimated at about 20,000 per single-seat constituency in House of Representatives elections — will have a significant impact.

Political turmoil looms

With the dissolution of the LDP-Komeito coalition, the political situation is expected to develop in a turbulent way. The immediate focus is on the outcome of the election for a new prime minister in the extraordinary Diet session to be convened soon.

As the LDP is the largest party, with 196 seats in the lower house, many observers expect Takaichi to be selected as prime minister.

However, if the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the Japan Innovation Party and the DPFP were to unite behind a single prime ministerial candidate, their combined total of 210 seats would surpass those of the LDP.

A precedent of multiple opposition parties uniting to elect a prime minister is the administration of former Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa, which was launched in 1993. Seven parties and one parliamentary group cooperated, except for the LDP.

This time, the CDPJ has named DPFP leader Tamaki as a “strong option” for a prime ministerial candidate and is calling on opposition parties for cooperation. Tamaki has expressed his desire to become a unified opposition candidate, but future developments are impossible to predict.

Diplomatic schedule can’t wait

Starting late this month, Japan has a busy diplomatic calendar, including summits related to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to Japan.

If a new prime minister is not decided upon and current Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is left to handle important diplomatic agendas, Japan will lose international credibility. A new cabinet should be launched as soon as possible.

Even if Takaichi becomes prime minister, she cannot avoid severe conditions for managing her administration.

Takaichi intends to aim for the passage of a supplementary budget proposal that has measures against rising prices as a pillar and a bill to abolish the provisional gasoline tax rate during the extraordinary Diet session.

Both policies require cooperation from opposition parties to be realized. However, shelving the question of financial resources and simply accepting the opposition’s demands could lead to a loss of public support.

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Oct. 11, 2025)