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The Yomiuri Shimbun New Liberal Democratic Party President Shigeru Ishiba speaks at a press conference on Monday where he announced his intention to dissolve the House of Representatives for a snap election.
By Masashi Nakata and Takahito Higuchi / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers
6:00 JST, October 2, 2024
Shigeru Ishiba, the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party, has decided to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold a general election because he thought it necessary to win a public mandate as early as possible to establish a solid foundation for his government.
An election is a double-edged sword, however. If the LDP loses seats, Ishiba could be forced to take the blame.
Unconventional
“It’s quite unusual for a person who is not prime minister to make such an announcement. I understand that,” Ishiba told reporters Monday. He announced his intention to dissolve the lower house before a press conference by the four new top LDP executives was held at the party headquarters on the same day.
Ishiba is focusing on the quickest timeline because a delay in dissolving the lower house and holding an election could break the party’s momentum from its presidential election and the launch of a new cabinet. LDP Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama is also concerned about that possibility and strongly called for an early election, encouraging Ishiba to make the announcement Monday.
Ishiba has long been regarded as an “opposition party within the LDP,” so he does not have a strong foundation in the party. Enhancing his leadership by winning a lower house election is therefore an urgent matter.
In appointing new party executives and his cabinet ministers, Ishiba rewarded those who helped him win the presidential election, such as members from the former Kishida faction and former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. Aiming to achieve cooperation among all party members, he also gave posts to some members of the Aso faction who supported rival candidate Sanae Takaichi, the economic security minister. These appointments included Shunichi Suzuki, who was named the chairperson of the party’s General Council.
However, sources of conflict still remain within the LDP.
Cast a cold eye
Takaichi declined Ishiba’s offer to take the post of General Council chairperson. Takayuki Kobayashi, the former economic security minister who came in fifth in the first round of voting for the presidential election, also declined his request to head the LDP’s Public Relations Headquarters.
Conservative members of the party who supported Takaichi or Kobayashi cast a cold eye toward Ishiba, who is positive about allowing married couples to have separate surnames and takes a liberal stance on many issues. “We should closely watch him to make sure that the party is on the right path, rather than participating in his administration and supporting him,” a close aid to Takaichi said.
No members of the former Abe faction were chosen for the new cabinet, leaving them strongly dissatisfied.
Following the political funds scandal involving party factions, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida fired all four Cabinet ministers and five senior vice ministers who belonged to the former Abe faction in December.
Ishiba said on a TV show in August that members of the former Abe faction “should be appointed to key positions after they have received a public mandate.” He apparently does not plan to name them to important posts until the election is over.
A junior member of the former Abe faction criticized Ishiba saying, “The latest personnel appointments are one-sided.” This was a sarcastic reference to Kishida, who called for party members to be “no sided” after Ishiba was elected LDP president.
The appointment of Seiichiro Murakami as internal affairs and communications minister has also prompted criticism because Murakami was suspended from his party position for one year in 2022 for describing former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as a “traitor.”
Risks
Criticism of the LDP over “politics and money” issues is still strong, and it is risky to hold an election before the public has decided what it thinks of the new administration. If scandals involving new party executives and cabinet members come to light, Ishiba’s administration could lose momentum before the election.
In the previous lower house election in October 2021, the LDP won an absolute majority of 261 seats. The line between victory and defeat for Ishiba will certainly draw much attention In the upcoming election. If the LDP loses a large number of seats, it could shake the new administration.
“Ishiba was elected because he’s popular among the people and many expect him to help the party win the election. If the LDP loses, anti-Ishiba movements will become notable, and he’ll have trouble managing his government,” an experienced party member said.
The Yomiuri ShimbunNew Liberal Democratic Party President Shigeru Ishiba speaks at a press conference on Monday where he announced his intention to dissolve the House of Representatives for a snap election.
