Japan Opposition CDPJ’s New Leader Must Appeal to Other Parties, Keep Solidarity; Yoshihiko Noda’s Conservative Stances May Appeal to Some LDP Voters

By Yoshihiro Kiyonaga and Takeo Maeda / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

20:00 JST, September 24, 2024

There are growing expectations for the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan’s newly elected leader, former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, to be the “face of election campaign” for the party amid rumors of the early dissolution of the House of Representatives and a subsequent general election.

On the other hand, the CDPJ is facing a mountain of difficult challenges such as forging election cooperation with other opposition parties and realizing reconciliation within the party itself.

Noda, 67, won in a close race and was elected as the new leader of the party on Monday.

“Beginning today, let us be ‘no side.’ All party members should be united and work together to take power from the ruling bloc,” Noda said in his speech on Monday after winning the election, calling for party unity. Noda used the phrase “no side” to suggest that rivals can be friends after a battle is over.

The biggest reason for his victory was that many people expected Noda, with his political skills and stable attitude, to give a boost to the party ahead of the next lower house election. Many believe his centrist political stance will help the party win over moderate conservative voters who are turning away from the Liberal Democratic Party due to problems of politics and money.

Party members who are scheduled to run as official party candidates in the next lower house or House of Councillors elections have strong concerns about their campaigns, and Noda won the most votes from such members in the initial balloting. In a runoff vote, he gained two-thirds of their votes, beating former party leader Yukio Edano by a large margin.

After Noda decided to run in the race, he cooperated with lower house member Ichiro Ozawa, with whom he had clashed over the consumption tax hike and other issues during his 2011-12 administration as prime minister. Noda won votes from lawmakers, mainly those belonging to the about 10-member Kaseikai group that is his own support base, the about 10-member Isseikai group led by Ozawa, and the Chokkan no Kai group comprised of about 15 junior and middle-ranking lawmakers.

In a speech delivered just before the runoff vote, Noda mentioned making education free of charge, which was one of key policies pledged by lower house member Harumi Yoshida, who came in fourth in the presidential race. Noda said: “I totally agree with the idea. Let’s make the term ‘oya-gacha’ [expressing the idea that children’s fates are sealed because they cannot choose their parents] a dead word.” This helped him win support from Yoshida’s campaign camp.

Close race

However, his victory was not rock solid. Looking at votes from local assembly members and rank-and-file party supporters, Noda received 139 points in the first vote, closely followed by Edano, a founder of the Democratic Party of Japan, the predecessor to the CDPJ, with 123 points. Left-wing party members hoped Edano would be elected.

At a meeting of his campaign camp after the election, Noda said, “I thought the founder had strong support.” In the runoff vote, the difference between the two in the number of votes from lawmakers was close, with Noda winning 72 votes and Edano winning 63.

Noda stressed his call for a “no side” environment because it would be difficult for him to smoothly manage the party if local assembly members and Diet members who supported Edano remain unsatisfied with the results. Aides close to Noda are considering assigning major positions to Edano and senior officials at Edano’s campaign camp and promoting Yoshida to a higher position for the sake of reconciliation within the party.

Challenges

From now on, Noda’s political skills will be put to the test, especially in building election cooperation among opposition parties.

“I aim to make the coalition of the LDP and Komeito lose a majority in the Diet. Maximizing the number of seats held by opposition party members is a realistic strategy,” Noda stressed at a press conference after the election. He cited the Democratic Party for the People as a cooperation partner and did not rule out the Japan Innovation Party. As for the Japanese Communist Party, Noda said his party would not share power with the JCP, but he also indicated that his party needs to build a dialogue relationship with it.

For now, the CDPJ plans to field 193 candidates in single-seat constituencies. The JIP will field candidates in nearly 60% of these constituencies and the JCP will field candidates in around 50%. To keep opposition candidates from draining support from one another, some candidates from the CDPJ might be asked to withdraw from the election.

“If we insist that other opposition parties should accept all our candidates, it will be impossible to have negotiations with them,” Noda said at the press conference. However, if he makes too many concessions to other opposition parties, it could trigger an anti-Noda movement within the CDPJ. As for cooperation with the JIP, some party members are already criticizing the notion, with one saying, “That is impossible as the two parties are as politically incompatible as oil and water.” For that reason, the Osaka prefectural chapter of the CDPJ supported Edano in the runoff vote.

The JCP is opposed to Noda’s conservative stance and aims put pressure on him in the next lower house election.

“It is crucial for Noda to be able to smoothly make adjustments for single-seat constituency candidates,” a mid-ranking lawmaker who supported Edano said.