Survey Shows Japan’s Noda, Edano in Close Race for CDPJ Leadership; Observers Believe a Runoff Between 2 Candidates Likely

The Yomiuri Shimbun

19:06 JST, September 14, 2024

Former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and former Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan leader Yukio Edano are seen leading the party’s leadership election, according to a Yomiuri Shimbun survey of the 136 CDPJ Diet members.

The survey showed that Noda, 67, is leading with slightly less than 30% of the support from the Diet members, followed by Edano, 60.

However, some observers believe that Edano will have an advantage in the election, which will take place on Sept. 23, as the party’s local assembly members and other party members will also cast their votes. It is expected to be a close contest between the two candidates.

Current party leader Kenta Izumi, 50, and House of Representatives member Harumi Yoshida, 52, do not have much support.

The leadership election is contested on 740 points, with votes of the party’s Diet members accounting for about one-third of the total. There is a possibility that a runoff will be held between the top two, as none of the candidates are likely to secure a majority in the first round of voting.

The survey asked the 136 CDPJ Diet members — 98 in the House of Representatives and 38 in the House of Councillors — about who they would support. Each person’s vote counted for two points, equaling a grand total of 272 points.

As of Friday, Noda was leading with support from 35 lawmakers, or 70 points, followed by Edano with support from 24 lawmakers, or 48 points.

Izumi had support from 17 Diet members, or 34 points, and Yoshida secured support from 15 members, or 30 points. Both Izumi and Yoshida failed to get the necessary 20 supporters, which would have been necessary to become candidates.

About 30% of the CDPJ Diet members were undecided, which will likely affect the outcome of the race.

When asked about why they supported their candidate, with multiple reasons allowed, supporters of Noda most often responded with such reasons as he is someone who “can win the support and trust of the public” and “has leadership ability.” Supporters of Edano most often responded that he “has policies that are highly rated.”

In a Yomiuri Shimbun opinion poll conducted in August, Noda came in first, with 25% of respondents saying that he would be best suited to lead the CDPJ. Expectations seem high for Noda to lead the party, especially among party members.

Edano, who founded the party, is favored by local assembly members.

In addition to voting points allocated to the party’s Diet members, all 98 CDPJ candidates who are expected to run in either the lower house or upper house will be given one point in the election.

The 1,236 CDPJ local assembly members will be allotted a total of 185 points, as will the 114,792 party members and supporting members.

Many still critical

“It’s our role to crush the political culture of the Liberal Democratic Party,” Noda said at a CDPJ debate in Tokushima on Friday.

Noda has secured the support of his intra-party group Kasei-kai, which comprises about 10 members, while also getting support from other groups, including the about 10-member group Issei-kai, which is led by lower house member Ichiro Ozawa.

However, many members are still critical of the decision he made during his time as prime minster of dissolving the lower house and holding a general election, causing his party to fall from power. It will be a challenge for him to expand his support base.

Possibility of backlash

“I want to establish a new administration that will replace the LDP, which has been abandoning the rural areas of the country,” Edano said at the same Friday debate.

Edano has secured the support of Sanctuary, which is the largest intra-party group comprising about 30 left-leaning members. However, the party suffered a crushing defeat in the 2021 lower house election when he was party leader. Some say that it is a little premature for Edano to return to party leadership.

One member of Edano’s camp has also said that he has become vague in his assertions. For example, Edano avoids using the words “zero nuclear power,” which is a policy that has been advocated by the party.

It is believed that he is aiming to appeal for a “pragmatic policy line” in anticipation of a change in government. However, there are concerns that such vagueness will blur the lines of confrontation with the ruling LDP and even invite backlash from supporters.

Lacking support

Izumi has been unable to solidify the support of his group, which comprises about 25 members.

Yoshida, on the other hand, has not been able to gather much support. A mid-ranking member of the party said there are “concerns regarding her lack of political experience.”

The reason Izumi and Yoshida are unable to secure support from 20 Diet members, despite having enough support to become candidates, is partly due to the “lending and borrowing” of nominations among candidates. The purpose of the move is to hold an election with diverse candidates.

In the latest survey of lawmakers, one of those who supported Yoshida’s candidacy said they would support another candidate in the election.

The survey also revealed that some group members supported candidates whose views did not align with their group.

Unlike LDP factions, members of CDPJ groups are allowed to belong to more than one group.

As it is still unknown who about 30% of the Diet members will vote for, the situation remains fluid.