Poll Finds Shigeru Ishiba Most Popular for LDP President; Shinjiro Koizumi Close Behind in Nationwide Survey

The Yomiuri Shimbun

15:36 JST, August 26, 2024

Shigeru Ishiba, a former secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party, was the most popular choice for the party’s next president in a Yomiuri Shimbun survey conducted nationwide this weekend.

The LDP presidential election is scheduled for Sept. 27, with official campaigning to start Sept. 12.

Ishiba was chosen by 22% of respondents, followed by former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi with 20% and economic security minister Sanae Takaichi at 10%. The survey was conducted Friday to Sunday, and asked respondents to choose among 11 party members.

In fourth place and lower were digital minister Taro Kono at 7%, Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa at 6%, and former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi at 5%. LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi was chosen by 2% of the respondents.

Former Internal Affairs and Communications Minister Seiko Noda, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato earned 1% each. Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ken Saito was not chosen by any respondents.

None of the respondents chose anyone other than the 11 members listed, while 10% said they were not supporting anyone. House of Councillors member Shigeharu Aoyama, 72, has also indicated his willingness to run.

Ishiba was down three percentage points from the 25% of respondents who chosen him in the previous survey conducted July 19-21. That poll included Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and others among the candidates.

In contrast, Koizumi was up five points from his previous 15%, and Takaichi rose four points from the 6% support she garnered in the earlier poll. Kono lost one point from his previous 8%.

Kamikawa was also up from 4% in the earlier poll, and Kobayashi was up from 1%.

Among LDP supporters, Koizumi was on top with 22%, followed by Ishiba at 20%. This is a reversal from the previous survey, in which Ishiba earned 23% and Koizumi won 14%.

Takaichi came in third with 14% of LDP supporters, up four points from the previous survey.

Sixty-eight percent of the respondents wanted the House of Representatives to be dissolved for a new election as soon as possible after the presidential election. This was much higher than 21% who did not think so.

By political party, the LDP was favored by 30%, up six percentage points from 24% in the previous survey. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan gained one point from the 5% it saw in the last poll, while the Japan Innovation Party lost two points from 5%.

Komeito was down one point from its previous 3%, Reiwa Shinsengumi gained one point from 1%, the Japanese Communist Party lost one point from 2% and the Democratic Party for the People remained at 1%.

The proportion of voters with no party affiliation dropped from 54% to 48%.

Ishiba responded to a question from reporters on Sunday in Kurayoshi, Tottori Prefecture, about whether the LDP would officially recognize lawmakers who had been punished for their faction’s violation of the Political Funds Control Law in the next election.

“A new system will decide on that. I don’t think people who haven’t been elected [as LDP president] yet should say anything,” Ishiba said. On Saturday — the day he announced his candidacy — Ishiba said “thorough discussions should be held” on the matter.

Takaichi is said to have secured the support of 20 Diet members, which is required to run for office. She said Sunday on a BS program that she was ready to proceed with preparations for the race.

Kamikawa told reporters in Tokyo, “I have the support of far more than 20 people.”

74% say PM’s resignation ‘appropriate’

The same survey found that 74% of respondents felt it was appropriate that Kishida decided to step down to take responsibility for the politics and money scandal involving LDP factions. In contrast, 16% did not think it was appropriate.

By party, 75% of LDP supporters, 82% of opposition party supporters and 72% of independents viewed Kishida’s resignation as appropriate, far higher than those who thought otherwise.

In contrast, 71% did not think that his resignation would lead the LDP to recover the public’s trust in the party, while 17% thought it would. Among opposition party supporters, 86% did not think it would help regain trust, an opinion also held by 80% of independents.

Within LDP supporters, 57% did not believe the LDP would regain public trust, exceeding 30% of those who thought it would. Even among the 74% who said Kishida’s resignation was appropriate, 71% did not believe his action would help restore trust in the LDP.

Whether the party will be able to regain the public’s confidence will likely depend on how each candidate handles the matter during the campaign in September.

The telephone-based survey employed a random digit-dialing method. Valid answers were provided by a total of 1,056 eligible voters: 423 people from 725 households with landline phones, and 633 of 1,718 mobile phone users who answered their phone.